20850 SE 156th Pl · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32784

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 290 Days on market

Built 1988 0.37 ac lot $103/sqft · 11% below area Est $168k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a peaceful lot in Umatilla, FL. Offering 1,460 sq. ft. of living space, this property combines comfort, functionality, and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors in your oversized yard, ideal for gardening, barbecues, or simply relaxing under the Florida sunshine. With no rear neighbors in sight, you’ll appreciate the privacy and natural surroundings. Located just minutes from the Ocala National Forest and Lake Weir, this home offers quick access to fishing, boating, hiking, and countless outdoor adventures. You’re also within a short drive to downtown Umatilla, local shops, and restaurants, with easy access to Ocala and The Villages. Handyman’s dream! With some repairs and upgrades, this property can shine again. Ideal for investors or DIY buyers

Key facts

• Oversized yard
• No rear neighbors
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED YARD
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• QUICK ACCESS TO FISHING
• QUICK ACCESS TO BOATING
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIKING
• MINUTES FROM LAKE WEIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $150k implies a 730% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.54%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,427
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -10.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20560 SE 155th Pl	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,334 (-9%)	18mo	$15,000	$11	48
20145 SE Highway 42	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,351 (-8%)	14mo	$145,000	$107	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,242
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $20,055
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32784

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,257/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,999 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,999 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,999 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,999 Active 271 DOM
15. 2025-12-29
    price $149,999 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a peaceful lot in Umatilla, FL. Offering 1,460 sq. ft. of living space, this property combines comfort, functionality, and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors in your oversized yard, ideal for gardening, barbecues, or simply relaxing under the Florida sunshine. With no rear neighbors in sight, you’ll appreciate the privacy and natural surroundings. Located just minutes from the Ocala National Forest and Lake Weir, this home offers quick access to fishing, boating, hiking, and countless outdoor adventures. You’re also within a short drive to downtown Umatilla, local shops, and restaurants, with easy access to Ocala and The Villages. Handyman’s dream! With some repairs and upgrades, this property can shine again. Ideal for investors or DIY buyers

16. 2025-12-08
    price $159,999 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a peaceful lot in Umatilla, FL. Offering 1,460 sq. ft. of living space, this property combines comfort, functionality, and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors in your oversized yard, ideal for gardening, barbecues, or simply relaxing under the Florida sunshine. With no rear neighbors in sight, you’ll appreciate the privacy and natural surroundings. Located just minutes from the Ocala National Forest and Lake Weir, this home offers quick access to fishing, boating, hiking, and countless outdoor adventures. You’re also within a short drive to downtown Umatilla, local shops, and restaurants, with easy access to Ocala and The Villages. Handyman’s dream! With some repairs and upgrades, this property can shine again. Ideal for investors or DIY buyers

17. 2025-09-01
    listed $174,999 Active 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a peaceful lot in Umatilla, FL. Offering 1,460 sq. ft. of living space, this property combines comfort, functionality, and convenience. Enjoy the outdoors in your oversized yard, ideal for gardening, barbecues, or simply relaxing under the Florida sunshine. With no rear neighbors in sight, you’ll appreciate the privacy and natural surroundings. Located just minutes from the Ocala National Forest and Lake Weir, this home offers quick access to fishing, boating, hiking, and countless outdoor adventures. You’re also within a short drive to downtown Umatilla, local shops, and restaurants, with easy access to Ocala and The Villages. Handyman’s dream! With some repairs and upgrades, this property can shine again. Ideal for investors or DIY buyers

18. 2017-06-09
    historical
19. 2017-04-03
    listed $39,900
20. 2016-09-02
    soldstatus $18,064
21. 2016-05-13
    listed $17,700
22. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,257 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,257 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,257
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.66%
• Current HPI: 352.4197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1400.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $159,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Listed $174,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-03 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-02 Sold (MLS) $18,064 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-13 Listed $17,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,257 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.