9024 Welborn Dr · Sulphur Springs, AR 71603

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 411 Days on market

Built 2006 0.60 ac lot $62/sqft · 18% above area Est $76k · 18% over ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 410 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.4% in Sulphur Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#192 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.03%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,363
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 17.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-3
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $18,914
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 411 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 410 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 409 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 408 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 407 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 405 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 404 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 401 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 395 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 394 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 393 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 392 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 391 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    price $89,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $89,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

19. 2026-01-20
    price $99,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

20. 2026-01-19
    price $99,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

21. 2025-09-26
    price $119,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

22. 2025-09-26
    price $119,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

23. 2025-09-26
    status Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

24. 2025-09-26
    status Back on Market 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

25. 2025-08-28
    status Pending 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

26. 2025-08-28
    status Under Contract 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

27. 2025-07-16
    price $124,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

28. 2025-07-15
    price $124,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

29. 2025-06-23
    price $129,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

30. 2025-06-23
    price $129,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

31. 2025-05-13
    price $134,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

32. 2025-05-12
    price $134,900 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

33. 2025-04-30
    status Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

34. 2025-04-30
    status Back on Market 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

35. 2025-04-01
    status Pending 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

36. 2025-04-01
    status Under Contract 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

37. 2025-03-07
    listed $139,900 Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

38. 2025-03-07
    listed $139,900 New Listing 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath with new flooring, paint and new mini blinds on 4.98 acres.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $2,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Sulphur Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #15295

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-35.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $89,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $89,900 HSBOR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $99,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $99,900 HSBOR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $119,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $119,900 HSBOR
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Pending — HSBOR
• 2025-08-28 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $124,900 CARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $124,900 HSBOR
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $129,900 HSBOR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $134,900 CARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $134,900 HSBOR
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Pending — HSBOR
• 2025-04-01 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $139,900 HSBOR
• 2025-03-07 Listed $139,900 CARMLS