4303 Mowery Rd · Houston, TX 77047

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1955 6,899 sqft lot $100/sqft · 29% below area Est $154k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**INVESTOR SPECIAL** GREAT OPPORTUNITY!! PROPERTY SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS.

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.19%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,420
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -28.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4419 Botany Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+7%)	3mo	$190,000	$162	75
4235 Dacca Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+1%)	4mo	$177,000	$159	75
10611 Leitrim Way	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,105 (+0%)	1mo	$159,900	$145	73
11423 Roandale Drive Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+0%)	12mo	$185,000	$168	70
11403 Mosscrest Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+2%)	6mo	$154,900	$137	68
4414 Tavenor Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	970 (-12%)	3mo	$149,000	$154	67
11707 Segrest Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	9mo	$149,900	$147	66
5011 Brisbane Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,049 (-5%)	1mo	$110,000	$105	62
11822 Greenshire Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	11mo	$215,000	$195	61
11018 Long Gate	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,242 (+13%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	55
12506 S Coast Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,026 (-7%)	3mo	$120,000	$117	54
10818 Carlton Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+13%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,261
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $26,678
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,068/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $497	+0% $466	+5% $435	+10% $404
Rent	-10% $340	-5% $403	+0% $466	+5% $529	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $494	base $466	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	45d	1	0.27mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	0.31mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	20d	1	0.65mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.67mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	15d	1	0.82mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	1.14mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	1.22mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	12d	1	1.25mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.26mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.30mi
11911 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,050	$1.50	9d	1	1.31mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	23d	1	1.34mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	20d	1	1.34mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	26	1.38mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.40mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	4d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,114	$1.05	0d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	12d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	9d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	6d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,073	$1.01	0d	1	1.43mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,273	$1.09	0d	1	1.43mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.44mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.49mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $109,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-03-25
    listed $124,900 Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    **INVESTOR SPECIAL** GREAT OPPORTUNITY!! PROPERTY SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS.

14. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus
15. 2008-02-21
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$2,068
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $4,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $4,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2020-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,068 · -22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.