Mitchell Plan · Savannah, GA 31324

$465,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,956 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the Mitchell floor plan in Richmond Hill, GA, and experience a new home design that perfectly complements your lifestyle. Enjoy the open kitchen, café, and gathering room ideal for hosting or relaxing. The spacious upstairs loft and Owner's Suite with a walk-in closet offer added convenience. Discover how this new construction blends comfort and flexibility for modern living.

Key facts

• Gathering room
• Upstairs loft
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GATHERING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

🏗️ New construction. The $465,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $648,854.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $466k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.0% in Savannah — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in GA, #397 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment D.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcallister Elementary School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #61 of 1,228 statewide, top 5%, 915 students, 9% FRL); Richmond Hill Middle School (math 49% / reading 61%, grade B-, #51 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,894 students, 25% FRL); Richmond Hill High School (math 32% / reading 58%, grade D-, #46 of 424 statewide, top 11%, 2,454 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $339,527 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.90%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $648,854
• List price: $465,990
• Delta: -28.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Trail View Ct	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,966 (+0%)	4mo	$517,165	$174	84
56 Trail View Ct	0.12mi	4/3.0	3,119 (+6%)	2mo	$504,265	$162	82
88 Sandy Bnd	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,027 (+2%)	1mo	$625,940	$207	81
125 Sandy Bnd	0.19mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,859 (-3%)	1mo	$694,450	$243	76
310 W Blackjack Oak Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,893 (-2%)	1mo	$579,000	$200	70
106 Sandy Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,712 (-8%)	1mo	$609,426	$225	68
40 Bradford Pear Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,730 (-8%)	3mo	$538,000	$197	60
220 Castnet Cv	0.30mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,244 (+10%)	3mo	$700,565	$216	58
240 Blackjack Oak Dr W	0.40mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,772 (-6%)	2mo	$561,500	$203	58
418 Enclave Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,053 (+3%)	1mo	$875,000	$287	57
405 Ridgewood Park Dr N	0.50mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,287 (+11%)	1mo	$750,000	$228	46
542 Linkside Lake Dr	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,184 (+8%)	2mo	$885,000	$278	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-222,662
• Equity at exit: $96,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-352,801
• Equity at exit: $56,101

Cash invested: $181,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31324

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$811 /mo · $9,733/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-1,802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,676

Max offer price $388,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,353	-5% $-1,578	+0% $-1,802	+5% $-2,026	+10% $-2,250
Rent	-10% $-2,070	-5% $-1,936	+0% $-1,802	+5% $-1,668	+10% $-1,534
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,475	-0.5pp $-1,637	base $-1,802	+0.5pp $-1,970	+1.0pp $-2,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,213
• Closing costs: $19,466
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Blackjack Oak Dr W Richmond Hill, GA	4.0	2.5	2750	$3,600	$1.31	45d	1	0.43mi
268 Heron Creek Dr Unit NA Richmond Hill, GA	5.0	4.0	3262	$3,500	$1.07	22d	1	0.85mi
268 Heron Creek Dr Richmond Hill, GA	5.0	4.0	3262	$3,500	$1.07	15d	1	0.85mi
62 Monterey Loop Richmond Hill, GA	4.0	3.5	2394	$2,975	$1.24	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $465,990 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,990 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,990 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,990 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,990 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $465,990 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,990 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $465,990 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,990 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $465,990 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $465,990 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $465,990 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,990 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $465,990 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,990 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,990 Active 244 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $465,990 Active 243 DOM
18. 2026-01-14
    price $465,990 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Step into the Mitchell floor plan in Richmond Hill, GA, and experience a new home design that perfectly complements your lifestyle. Enjoy the open kitchen, café, and gathering room ideal for hosting or relaxing. The spacious upstairs loft and Owner's Suite with a walk-in closet offer added convenience. Discover how this new construction blends comfort and flexibility for modern living.

19. 2025-09-29
    listed $477,990 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Step into the Mitchell floor plan in Richmond Hill, GA, and experience a new home design that perfectly complements your lifestyle. Enjoy the open kitchen, café, and gathering room ideal for hosting or relaxing. The spacious upstairs loft and Owner's Suite with a walk-in closet offer added convenience. Discover how this new construction blends comfort and flexibility for modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,346
• − Property taxes: −$9,733
• − Insurance: −$3,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,259
• − Management: −$3,259
• − Depreciation: −$18,876
• Taxable loss: −$33,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan County
• NCES district ID: 1300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,465
• Composite: 44.99/100
• National rank: #2701
• State rank: #14 of 174 in GA

Livability — Savannah

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #397

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bryan County · 37,406 people
• City population: 216,564
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 37,406
• Household income: $122,378
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Bryan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,980 people
• By 2030: 51,583 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 63,184 · +37.4%
• By 2050: 75,400 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 105,363 · +129.1%
• By 2100: 124,959 · +171.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bryan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.54%
• Current HPI: 215.1789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Listed $477,990 Zillow