12144 Lexington Heights Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$219,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $223k · at est. $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CHARMING BRAND NEW D. R. HORTON HOME IN LEXINGTON HEIGHTS! WONDERFUL COMMUNITY! Close to Lake Conroe and endless entertainment options! Charming one story with gourmet island kitchen! Includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room! The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop! Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms! Fantastic outdoor space with landscape package and sprinkler system! Also includes water softener and filtration system

Key facts

• Quality cabinets
• Quartz counter tops
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• QUALITY CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $232,290

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Located at 12144 Lexington Heights Dr, Willis TX 77318
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,156

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Atlanta plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-224/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $198,434 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11707 Ruffian Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	0mo	$224,990	$195	90
11828 East Gate Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+2%)	0mo	$229,515	$195	69
11849 East Gate Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+2%)	3mo	$235,444	$201	69
11735 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$209,990	$182	67
11880 East Gate Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+2%)	5mo	$227,990	$194	67
11775 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	4mo	$209,990	$182	65
11993 Barbaro Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+15%)	2mo	$255,990	$193	65
11808 East Gate Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+2%)	8mo	$230,827	$197	63
11671 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$231,990	$181	50
11755 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$230,990	$180	48
12011 Curlin Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+15%)	1mo	$245,990	$185	43
11854 Serena's Song Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+15%)	5mo	$239,990	$181	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-42,582
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-60,799
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $217,288

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $57	+0% $-19	+5% $-95	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-97	+0% $-19	+5% $60	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $37	base $-19	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11848 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	26d	1	0.55mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,925	$1.38	21d	1	1.13mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	7d	1	1.17mi
11114 N Lake Mist Ln Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,799	$1.37	15d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $219,990 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,290 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $232,290 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This charming, brand-new D.R. Horton home in Lexington Heights is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. The interior is fresh and modern, with good flooring and paint, and the exterior is well-maintained. Consider painting the interior walls and installing new flooring in the bathrooms for a slight boost in value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B