5413 Rollins Dr · Denton, TX 76249

$290,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $198/sqft · 7% below area Est $312k · 7% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New and Now selling! D. R. Horton's new fabulous Hickory Grove community in Denton and Krum ISD! The two-story Davis Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Summer completion. This home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a thoughtfully designed layout that blends open-concept living with privately situated bedrooms. The spacious family room, dining area, and modern kitchen create a cohesive gathering space ideal for both entertaining and everyday routines. The well-appointed kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” painted cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage. Upstai

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing conditions; Minerals retained by developer (exclusion)
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; management fees included; HOA managed by VCM, Inc.; Community features: clubhouse, community pool, jogging/bike path, park, sidewalks, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front, 2-car single door); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer / sewer available; MUD water (municipal utility district); Individual water meter and individual gas meter; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available; Cable and phone available; Underground utilities; Sidewalks and curbs
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; New construction - incomplete (year built 2026); Not attached to another property; Smart home features included
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Few trees, landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision lot (interior lot); Utilities easement for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in cabinets; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level with separate shower and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Smart home system; Walk-in closet(s); Vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility / separate laundry room; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($228/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanche Dodd El (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 312 students, 43% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,890 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,089
• List price: $290,990
• Delta: -6.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,065
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-39,049
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $290,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $101	+0% $19	+5% $-63	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-70	+0% $19	+5% $108	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $93	base $19	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	7d	1	0.06mi
5544 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	6d	1	0.08mi
5552 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.12mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	7d	1	0.16mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	45d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,990 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,990 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,990 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,990 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,990 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,990 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $290,990 Active 1555-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,325 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,696/yr (+$391/mo · 746.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$4,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $290,990 NTREIS