3190 The Long Way Ln · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1988 0.58 ac lot Est $1100k · 18% over $58/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Resort like living at this luxury north fork home in a private community! Totally redone 3 years ago and extremely private near beach and adjacent to tennis courts. Gorgeous property with heated in-ground pool, tiki bar, outdoor shower, hot tub with gazebo, firepit, large deck for outdoor dining and barbecue, volleyball/horseshoes/bocce area, and in-ground sprinklers. Interior is tastefully decorated and ideal for entertaining with rustic wood open shelving, wine cooler and icemaker. Close to Orient Point, Greenport and many wonderful restaurants, shops and wineries. Low taxes! HOA FEE IS 700.00 ANNUALLY., Additional information: Appearance:Mint ++,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

Key facts

• Landscaped parcel
• 0.58 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PEBBLE BEACH FARMS COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY TENNIS COURT
• COMMUNITY PICKLEBALL COURT
• COMMUNITY BASKETBALL COURT
• LANDSCAPED PARCEL
• HEATED IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association amenities include tennis courts; Association fee $700 annually (includes other)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Garden; Tennis courts; Deck; Patio; Cabana; Gazebo; Garage(s); Private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Freezer; Stainless steel appliances; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Storage; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.28M (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $363k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,275,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.30%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,099,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3130 Rocky Point Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-2%)	22mo	$925,000	$524	64
600 Shipyard Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,800 (0%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$611	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $328,457
• Equity at exit: $616,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $932,616
• Equity at exit: $978,441

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,220/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,688
• Net cashflow: $2,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,009

Max offer price $1,295,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,938	-5% $2,571	+0% $2,205	+5% $1,838	+10% $1,472
Rent	-10% $1,193	-5% $1,699	+0% $2,205	+5% $2,710	+10% $3,216
Rate	-1.0pp $2,857	-0.5pp $2,534	base $2,205	+0.5pp $1,869	+1.0pp $1,528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	45d	1	0.27mi
870 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	45d	1	0.62mi
460 Bay Ave East Marion, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$8,000	$5.33	45d	1	0.69mi
1110 Gillette Dr East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$7,000	$4.67	21d	1	0.77mi
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	26d	1	0.80mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	21d	1	1.02mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	45d	1	1.08mi
485 Sutton Pl Greenport, NY	4.0	2.5	2026	$20,000	$9.87	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $1,295,000 Active
3. 2025-10-01
   historical
4. 2025-07-23
   price $1,395,000
5. 2025-05-22
   listed $1,550,000 Active
6. 2022-11-09
   soldstatus $1,250,000
7. 2022-08-04
   soldstatus $1,250,000 Closed 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Resort like living at this luxury north fork home in a private community! Totally redone 3 years ago and extremely private near beach and adjacent to tennis courts. Gorgeous property with heated in-ground pool, tiki bar, outdoor shower, hot tub with gazebo, firepit, large deck for outdoor dining and barbecue, volleyball/horseshoes/bocce area, and in-ground sprinklers. Interior is tastefully decorated and ideal for entertaining with rustic wood open shelving, wine cooler and icemaker. Close to Orient Point, Greenport and many wonderful restaurants, shops and wineries. Low taxes! HOA FEE IS 700.00 ANNUALLY., Additional information: Appearance:Mint ++,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

8. 2022-07-15
   status Pending 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Resort like living at this luxury north fork home in a private community! Totally redone 3 years ago and extremely private near beach and adjacent to tennis courts. Gorgeous property with heated in-ground pool, tiki bar, outdoor shower, hot tub with gazebo, firepit, large deck for outdoor dining and barbecue, volleyball/horseshoes/bocce area, and in-ground sprinklers. Interior is tastefully decorated and ideal for entertaining with rustic wood open shelving, wine cooler and icemaker. Close to Orient Point, Greenport and many wonderful restaurants, shops and wineries. Low taxes! HOA FEE IS 700.00 ANNUALLY., Additional information: Appearance:Mint ++,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

9. 2022-07-07
   historical 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Resort like living at this luxury north fork home in a private community! Totally redone 3 years ago and extremely private near beach and adjacent to tennis courts. Gorgeous property with heated in-ground pool, tiki bar, outdoor shower, hot tub with gazebo, firepit, large deck for outdoor dining and barbecue, volleyball/horseshoes/bocce area, and in-ground sprinklers. Interior is tastefully decorated and ideal for entertaining with rustic wood open shelving, wine cooler and icemaker. Close to Orient Point, Greenport and many wonderful restaurants, shops and wineries. Low taxes! HOA FEE IS 700.00 ANNUALLY., Additional information: Appearance:Mint ++,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

10. 2022-06-27
    listed $1,299,900 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Resort like living at this luxury north fork home in a private community! Totally redone 3 years ago and extremely private near beach and adjacent to tennis courts. Gorgeous property with heated in-ground pool, tiki bar, outdoor shower, hot tub with gazebo, firepit, large deck for outdoor dining and barbecue, volleyball/horseshoes/bocce area, and in-ground sprinklers. Interior is tastefully decorated and ideal for entertaining with rustic wood open shelving, wine cooler and icemaker. Close to Orient Point, Greenport and many wonderful restaurants, shops and wineries. Low taxes! HOA FEE IS 700.00 ANNUALLY., Additional information: Appearance:Mint ++,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,053 · $1,171/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,833/yr (+$653/mo · 125.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $153,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$6,220
• − Insurance: −$6,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,288
• − Management: −$12,288
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable income: $5,415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $25,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $1,550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,250,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-04 Sold (MLS) $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Listed $1,299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,220 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.