16084 County Road 70 · Andalusia, AL 36421

$135,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1975 0.85 ac lot $94/sqft · 40% below area Est $225k · 40% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming brick home rests on the outskirts of Andalusia. The home offers 4 bedrooms and a newer roof, along with updated flooring throughout. Situated on a wooded lot just under an acre, the property provides both privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. With its ranch-style layout and peaceful setting, this home blends country charm and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Newer roof
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• WOODED LOT
• RANCH-STYLE LAYOUT
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($443/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Andalusia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,074
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -40.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $31,104
• Equity at exit: $73,969

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $93,222
• Equity at exit: $125,614

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36421

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $135,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The charming brick home rests on the outskirts of Andalusia. The home offers 4 bedrooms and a newer roof, along with updated flooring throughout. Situated on a wooded lot just under an acre, the property provides both privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. With its ranch-style layout and peaceful setting, this home blends country charm and everyday convenience.

18. 2026-03-13
    price $145,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The charming brick home rests on the outskirts of Andalusia. The home offers 4 bedrooms and a newer roof, along with updated flooring throughout. Situated on a wooded lot just under an acre, the property provides both privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. With its ranch-style layout and peaceful setting, this home blends country charm and everyday convenience.

19. 2026-02-24
    price $155,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The charming brick home rests on the outskirts of Andalusia. The home offers 4 bedrooms and a newer roof, along with updated flooring throughout. Situated on a wooded lot just under an acre, the property provides both privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. With its ranch-style layout and peaceful setting, this home blends country charm and everyday convenience.

20. 2026-02-07
    listed $165,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The charming brick home rests on the outskirts of Andalusia. The home offers 4 bedrooms and a newer roof, along with updated flooring throughout. Situated on a wooded lot just under an acre, the property provides both privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors. With its ranch-style layout and peaceful setting, this home blends country charm and everyday convenience.

21. 2025-09-08
    listed $192,400 Active
22. 2025-09-03
    status Active
23. 2025-07-27
    price $149,999
24. 2025-04-14
    listed $160,000 Active
25. 2025-03-29
    price $149,000
26. 2025-03-24
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Andalusia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #13465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,861
• Population (ZIP): 9,861

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 11% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.69%
• Current HPI: 184.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $135,000 CAOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $145,000 CAOR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $155,000 CAOR
• 2026-02-07 Listed $165,000 CAOR
• 2025-09-08 Listed $192,400 SAMLS
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — WBR
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $149,999 WBR
• 2025-04-14 Listed $160,000 WBR
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $149,000 CAOR
• 2025-03-24 Listed $160,000 CAOR

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.