201 Barren Dr · Scottsville, KY 42164

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 92 Days on market

Built 1996 1.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just minutes from Barren River Lake- perfect for boating, fishing, or weekend getaways. Great potential to make this a lake retreat, with over an acre of land this property has options. Don't let opportunity escape you!

Key facts

• Lake retreat
• Over an acre of land
• 1.12 acre lot

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• LAKE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.1% in Scottsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#329 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allen County (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #85 of 165 in KY (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $85k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,363
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $22,776
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42164

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $85,000 Active 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Just minutes from Barren River Lake- perfect for boating, fishing, or weekend getaways. Great potential to make this a lake retreat, with over an acre of land this property has options. Don't let opportunity escape you!

18. 2025-06-23
    price $114,900
19. 2025-06-18
    listed $1,114,900 Active
20. 2009-04-07
    soldstatus $34,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$949
• − Management: −$949
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$421
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allen County
• NCES district ID: 2100070
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $38,248
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6946
• State rank: #85 of 165 in KY

Livability — Scottsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #15741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,416

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,553 people
• By 2030: 21,947 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 22,574 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 22,739 · +5.5%
• By 2075: 22,607 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 20,793 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.0% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.3 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.85%
• Current HPI: 278.5576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+145.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $85,000 RASKMLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $114,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $1,114,900 RASKMLS
• 2009-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $34,650 Public Records