4705 Fox Hollow Rd #30 · Graham, TX 76450

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · Manufactured · 328 Days on market

Built 1997 1,525 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE FIND: DOUBLE LOT + CLIMATE-CONTROLLED SHOP! Opportunities like this don’t come around often in Fox Hollow. This property includes one of the few double lots, complete with a fully finished shop, garage, party barn or boat storage — sheet rocked, temperature-controlled, and outfitted with a custom bar, mini fridges, a mounted flat-screen TV, and plenty of counter space for entertaining. The main unit features a private master suite and a separate bunk room, with an open-concept layout and glossy wood countertops in the kitchen. Just two units away from the Hungry Fox Café, boat launch, courtesy slips, park, and more. Enjoy live music on weekends at the Foxy Cantina and experience all the amenities and lifestyle Fox Hollow has to offer. A rare setup in this community — don’t miss it.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Custom bar
• Mini fridges

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED SHOP
• FULLY FINISHED SHOP
• CUSTOM BAR
• MINI FRIDGES
• MOUNTED FLAT SCREEN TV

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.41%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $52,980
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $130,085
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76450

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $1,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Doe Ln Graham, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 314 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 310 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 309 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 308 DOM
17. 2025-07-26
    listed $85,000 Active 835-char remark

    Show marketing remark (835 chars)

    RARE FIND: DOUBLE LOT + CLIMATE-CONTROLLED SHOP! Opportunities like this don’t come around often in Fox Hollow. This property includes one of the few double lots, complete with a fully finished shop, garage, party barn or boat storage — sheet rocked, temperature-controlled, and outfitted with a custom bar, mini fridges, a mounted flat-screen TV, and plenty of counter space for entertaining. The main unit features a private master suite and a separate bunk room, with an open-concept layout and glossy wood countertops in the kitchen. Just two units away from the Hungry Fox Café, boat launch, courtesy slips, park, and more. Enjoy live music on weekends at the Foxy Cantina and experience all the amenities and lifestyle Fox Hollow has to offer. A rare setup in this community — don’t miss it.

18. 2014-01-01
    historical
19. 2013-09-23
    price $27,500
20. 2013-07-12
    price $28,500
21. 2013-06-08
    listed $29,900 Active
22. 2013-05-01
    historical
23. 2012-10-31
    price $34,900
24. 2012-04-28
    listed $39,900 Active
25. 2005-03-11
    soldstatus
26. 2005-03-01
    historical
27. 2004-08-24
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $11,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,826
• After-tax cash flow: $9,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graham

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #5580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,890

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.82%
• Current HPI: 198.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-26 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2014-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-09-23 Price Changed $27,500 NTREIS
• 2013-07-12 Price Changed $28,500 NTREIS
• 2013-06-08 Listed $29,900 NTREIS
• 2013-05-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-10-31 Price Changed $34,900 NTREIS
• 2012-04-28 Listed $39,900 NTREIS
• 2005-03-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-03-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-08-24 Listed $35,000 NTREIS