281 Langhorne Bnd · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$379,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,243 sqft · Other · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 4,830 sqft lot $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $417k · 9% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed home offers a versatile game room loft perfect for entertainment or relaxation. . Gas appliances provide efficiency and modern convenience throughout the kitchen and living spaces. The spacious primary suite serves as a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet and direct laundry access for added ease. With a functional layout and flexible living areas, this home is ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining.

Key facts

• 4,830 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Lariat Community HOA); HOA fee $210 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking; 2-car covered garage spaces (2 covered, 4 total parking)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public power
• Home design: Two-story home; New construction by Risewell Homes; Faces east; Main-level primary bedroom; Open floorplan
• Construction: HardiPlank and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by builder (new construction)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Back yard; Front yard; Fenced backyard; Community pool; Community playground; Community park; Trails/paths; Community fishing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher (ENERGY STAR qualified); Disposal; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (1); Second-level loft
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Interior steps; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room with washer and dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $277,079 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,048
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -8.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-84,190
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-123,601
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,057

Max offer price $340,029

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	16d	1	0.04mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.04mi
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	11d	1	0.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,990 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,990 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,990 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $379,990 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $379,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $379,990 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed home offers a versatile game room loft perfect for entertainment or relaxation. . Gas appliances provide efficiency and modern convenience throughout the kitchen and living spaces. The spacious primary suite serves as a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet and direct laundry access for added ease. With a functional layout and flexible living areas, this home is ideal for both everyday comfort and entertaining.

15. 2026-04-29
    listed $379,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (1480 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of the quintessential Texas Hill country, this beautifully designed home in Lariat offers 4 bedrooms , 3 full and 1 half baths and 2,243 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. A highly desirable layout features the primary suite on the first floor, creating a private retreat, while the open concept design invites effortless everyday living and entertaining. At the center of the home, the gourmet kitchen shines with ample counter space, modern finishes , and a seamless flow into the main living and dining areas perfect for gathering. Upstairs, a spacious game room/loft provides flexible living space ideal for a media room, playroom , or home office. Generous secondary bedrooms and abundant storage- including la large walk-in closet- add to the home's comfort and functionality. Step outside to enjoy the extended covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings under Texas sunsets, while delivering a lifestyle that is serene in one of Liberty Hill's most inviting communities. Beyond your front door, Lariat offers a lifestyle that’s truly unmatched—featuring charming pocket parks, scenic walking trails, a tranquil fishing pond, and a brand-new elementary school opening Fall 2026, all thoughtfully designed to foster a strong sense of community and connection. Enjoy the perfect balance of peaceful surroundings and modern convenience—because this is more than just a home, it’s the beginning of your next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,954 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,625/yr (+$385/mo · 198.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$9,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,275
• After-tax cash flow: $-440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Listed $379,990 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-14.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,329 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.