7404 Fir Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1981 7,680 sqft lot $107/sqft · 10% above area Est $128k · 10% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3/2/2 on cul-de-sac street! Lots of storage, very nice patio with a metal cover, large backyard with a storage building. One block from a nice park! Easy to show! Easy access to I-27 and Loop 289.

Key facts

• 7,680 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,633
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 9.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 77th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+6%)	18mo	$137,464	$99	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $29,496
• Equity at exit: $64,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $87,778
• Equity at exit: $101,136

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,825/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
320 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.15mi
312 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	13d	1	0.17mi
7702 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	0.19mi
7704 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.20mi
312 E 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,619	$1.24	43d	1	0.21mi
7715 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	21d	1	0.25mi
7717 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,899	$1.33	13d	1	0.26mi
7723 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.28mi
8011 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.40mi
8015 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.42mi
8017 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,599	$1.16	13d	1	0.43mi
8030 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.47mi
110 E 82nd St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1113	$1,150	$1.03	43d	1	0.58mi
914 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$900	$0.97	43d	1	0.99mi
1106 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	1.05mi
1108 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	1.05mi
1113 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	1.06mi
1112 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	1.07mi
1115 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	1.08mi
1116 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	1.09mi
1118 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	1.10mi
5614 Avenue A Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1129	$695	$0.62	21d	1	1.15mi
1508 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$750	$0.78	43d	1	1.27mi
1512 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	21d	1	1.29mi
1307 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	13d	1	1.33mi
5512 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,000	$0.90	43d	1	1.34mi
1341 65th Dr Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$695	$0.69	21d	1	1.35mi
313 52nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1044	$975	$0.93	21d	1	1.42mi
6130 Avenue P Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$1,100	$0.79	43d	1	1.44mi
1625 79th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.44mi
7006 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	1.46mi
1606 82nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,580	$1.87	13d	16	1.46mi
1805 79th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,375	$1.07	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $140,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,500 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,500 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $142,500 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,500 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $142,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,500 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,500 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,500 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,500 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,500 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $142,500 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Cute 3/2/2 on cul-de-sac street! Lots of storage, very nice patio with a metal cover, large backyard with a storage building. One block from a nice park! Easy to show! Easy access to I-27 and Loop 289.

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $147,500 Active 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Cute 3/2/2 on cul-de-sac street! Lots of storage, very nice patio with a metal cover, large backyard with a storage building. One block from a nice park! Easy to show! Easy access to I-27 and Loop 289.

20. 2026-03-26
    historical $1,275
21. 2026-03-24
    listed $1,275
22. 2026-03-23
    historical $1,325
23. 2026-03-11
    listed $1,325
24. 2026-03-11
    historical $1,325
25. 2026-01-10
    price $1,325
26. 2026-01-09
    listed $1,275
27. 2025-03-08
    historical $1,275
28. 2025-02-20
    listed $1,275
29. 2025-02-13
    historical $1,275
30. 2025-01-31
    listed $1,275
31. 2023-11-14
    historical $1,275
32. 2023-10-04
    listed $1,275
33. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus
34. 2017-08-31
    soldstatus
35. 2017-08-30
    soldstatus 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Cute 3/2/2 on cul-de-sac street! New interior/exterior paint. central heat/air. Fireplace. Lots of storage. Very nice patio with metal covering. Storage house. One block from nice park! Easy to show! Easy access to I27 and Loop 289.

36. 2017-07-13
    listed $82,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Cute 3/2/2 on cul-de-sac street! New interior/exterior paint. central heat/air. Fireplace. Lots of storage. Very nice patio with metal covering. Storage house. One block from nice park! Easy to show! Easy access to I27 and Loop 289.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,825
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $2,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+73.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $142,500 LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $147,500 LARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Rental Removed $1,275 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $1,275 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-03-23 Rental Removed $1,325 LARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,325 LARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Rental Removed $1,325 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $1,325 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,275 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-03-08 Rental Removed $1,275 LARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed for Rent $1,275 LARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Rental Removed $1,275 LARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,275 LARMLS
• 2023-11-14 Rental Removed $1,275 LARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,275 LARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-30 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-07-13 Listed $82,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,825 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.