5-38 Alcott Ln #38 · Davenport Center, NY 13750

$75,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,468 sqft · MultiFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1969 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Trailer Park Sites for 5 trailers, 4 trailers on side. One lot vacant. Currently Doublewide is occupied by owner. 2 singlewide trailers owned by seller. One is being used by family. Other is gutted, in need of complete remodel. Each trailer has it's own septic tank. Trailer 4 is privately owned. A fifth lot could be rented. Barn. Motivated seller.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• 10 parking spots
• Built 1969

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,049 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Charlotte Valley Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #640 of 755 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 229.01%
• DSCR: 11.19
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.42×
• Total profit: $281,815
• Equity at exit: $56,744

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.07×
• Total profit: $631,415
• Equity at exit: $112,412

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13750

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,203
• Net cashflow: $3,941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 26%

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	2	1	$5,726
Total (7 units)			$5,729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $75,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Trailer Park Sites for 5 trailers, 4 trailers on side. One lot vacant. Currently Doublewide is occupied by owner. 2 singlewide trailers owned by seller. One is being used by family. Other is gutted, in need of complete remodel. Each trailer has it's own septic tank. Trailer 4 is privately owned. A fifth lot could be rented. Barn. Motivated seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,500
• − Management: −$5,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $49,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,776
• After-tax cash flow: $35,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607050
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,579
• Composite: 36.67/100
• National rank: #9236
• State rank: #640 of 755 in NY

Livability — Davenport Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1049
• US rank: #20806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 588

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Scottish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.95%
• Current HPI: 371.933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $75,000 Global MLS