317 Moffat Blvd #21 · Manteca, CA 95336

$134,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $169/sqft · 181% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sleepy Hollow Manufactured Home Community, a beautifully renovated park that will feature 22 brand-new homes! A rare opportunity to make your dreams of homeownership come true. Don't miss your chance to own a brand-new 2026 Champion double-wide manufactured home in this refreshed and growing community. This home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a spacious open-concept floor plan designed for comfortable, modern living. Enjoy contemporary finishes throughout, including a well-appointed kitchen with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, and soft-close hinges and drawers. Additional features include indoor laundry with washer and dryer hookups, ample natur

Key facts

• Indoor laundry
• Brand new home
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRAND NEW HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,756 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.22%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,000
• List price: $134,950
• Delta: 181.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 Moffat Blvd #14	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	860 (+8%)	6mo	$105,100	$122	73
555 Moffat Blvd #47	0.09mi	2/1.0	775 (-3%)	22mo	$95,000	$123	69
555 Moffat Blvd #37	0.09mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	19mo	$85,000	$117	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $18,552
• Equity at exit: $20,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $52,386
• Equity at exit: $11,668

Cash invested: $37,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $134,950

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,738
• Closing costs: $4,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Oak St Manteca, CA	3.0	1.0	1007	$3,045	$3.02	44d	1	0.52mi
225 N Fremont St Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,875	$2.02	44d	1	0.55mi
139 W Yosemite Ave Unit 1 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	948	$1,650	$1.74	3d	1	0.64mi
801 Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,695	$2.76	2d	8	0.72mi
430 Sutter St Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,922	$2.39	3d	3	0.74mi
311 Charles Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,750	$2.52	23d	1	0.77mi
420 N Maple Ave Unit 13 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,395	$2.33	23d	1	0.94mi
1224 Schirra Ct Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	528	$1,750	$3.31	21d	1	0.96mi
222 Elm Ave Unit B Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	19d	1	0.97mi
529 N Lincoln Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	734	$1,900	$2.59	44d	1	0.99mi
200 Northwoods Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	3d	1	1.00mi
556 N Lincoln Ave Unit 32 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	14d	1	1.00mi
556 N Lincoln Ave Unit 12 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	44d	1	1.00mi
556 N Lincoln Ave Unit 15 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	44d	1	1.00mi
366 E Edison St Unit 12 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	3d	1	1.01mi
218 W Alameda St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,450	$2.45	11d	1	1.03mi
809 Marion St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	910	$2,400	$2.64	44d	1	1.08mi
221 E Edison St Unit 2 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,475	$2.46	3d	1	1.09mi
221 E Edison St Unit 8 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,475	$2.46	14d	1	1.09mi
832 Marion St Unit A Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	836	$2,100	$2.51	44d	1	1.12mi
1360 Lakeside Ave Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,580	$2.56	2d	3	1.14mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	14d	1	1.30mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,900	$3.04	3d	1	1.30mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,100	$2.76	23d	1	1.30mi
150 Pestana Ave Apt Home Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $134,950 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,950 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,950 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,950 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,950 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,950 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,950 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,950 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,950 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,950 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,950 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,950 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,950 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,950 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,950 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,950 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,559
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$3,926
• Taxable income: $7,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,690
• After-tax cash flow: $7,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This renovated manufactured home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job, new flooring, and stainless steel appliances. It offers a spacious open-concept floor plan and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Install new window treatments — New window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Add landscaping around the home — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Install new light fixtures — New light fixtures improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Add a small front porch — A small front porch enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the home — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Install new light fixtures — New light fixtures improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A small front porch enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B