209 Nautilus Ave · Pioneer, FL 33935

$214,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,806 sqft · Land · 64 Days on market

Built 2006 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unique investment opportunity! This property is being sold as-is in its current pre-construction stage. Approved permit plans are already in place and can be transferred to the new owner, allowing you to seamlessly continue the project without starting from scratch, new buyer is having the opportunity to finish the construction to your own taste, style, and specifications—perfect for investors, builders, or buyers looking to customize their dream home.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Block, concrete, stucco and wood siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 120 x 100 x 100 x 100; Lot is on a public maintained road; Lot exposure to the south

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Bedroom on main level; Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.9% in Pioneer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,146/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $215k implies a 1128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $130,485
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $373,775
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 942
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $285	+0% $211	+5% $136	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $126	+0% $211	+5% $295	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $265	base $211	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $214,900
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2022-01-24
    soldstatus $17,500
18. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$228
• After-tax cash flow: $2,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hendry
• NCES district ID: 1200780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,043
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6054
• State rank: #65 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #15534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Hendry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,866 people
• By 2030: 38,558 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 37,743 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 36,117 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 30,070 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 21,966 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.4% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+5.9 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-60.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $214,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $399 · -20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.