10117 Earl Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1953 6,499 sqft lot $36/sqft · 38% below area Est $48k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Major improvements have already been completed on this property, including updated electrical and plumbing systems that are near completion. The home also features a new roof and has no known foundation issues, providing a solid starting point for your finishing touches.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.3% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $30k implies a 1900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.01%
• DSCR: 5.45
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,223
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -37.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10117 Royal Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	84
10117 Duke Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	4mo	$119,900	$139	83
10236 Monarch Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	850 (+2%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	76
10365 Lord Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	4mo	$87,000	$101	69
10429 Earl Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0	770 (-8%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	65
10067 Prince Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	945 (+13%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	62
10348 Earl Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	770 (-8%)	4mo	$35,000	$45	62
9984 Duke Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+15%)	1mo	$54,000	$56	59
10501 Baron Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+6%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	57
10228 Viscount Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	925 (+10%)	2mo	$155,000	$168	57
10512 Count Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+6%)	4mo	$105,000	$118	55
10432 Royal Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	945 (+13%)	5mo	$99,900	$106	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $51,866
• Equity at exit: $14,844

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.81×
• Total profit: $124,412
• Equity at exit: $23,990

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $283

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	0.07mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.08mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.11mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	0.13mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.23mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.34mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.36mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	0.37mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.39mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.41mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	0.47mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.55mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	0.56mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.56mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	0.59mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	0.65mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.67mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	0.69mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	0.69mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.81mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.81mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	10d	1	0.86mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.87mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.90mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	0.92mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	14d	1	0.92mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	17d	1	0.92mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.94mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.97mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	21d	1	1.05mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	1.06mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.07mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.07mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	43d	1	1.14mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	43d	1	1.15mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	1.16mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	1.18mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	43d	1	1.18mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.24mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $30,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $69,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Major improvements have already been completed on this property, including updated electrical and plumbing systems that are near completion. The home also features a new roof and has no known foundation issues, providing a solid starting point for your finishing touches.

16. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $1,500
17. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 2000-09-14
    soldstatus $40,000
19. 1999-01-21
    soldstatus $33,000
20. 1999-01-21
    soldstatus $33,000
21. 1990-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $6,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+109.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $69,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $647 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.