15111 Pipeline Ave #85 · Chino Hills, CA 91709

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $274k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS HOME IS IN A WONDERFUL OWNER OPERATED SENIOR PARK. GREAT BUY, OWNER ANXIOUS AND HAS PRICED TO SELL. OWNER WILL PAY FOR TERMITE & HOME OWNER POLICY. BEST BUY IN THE WHOLE PARK. 2 BEDR W/ MIRRORED CLOSET DOORS, 2 SLIDING GLASS DOORS(1 ON EACH SIDE OF FAMILY ROOM)REFRIGERATOR, CARPETS WILL BE SHAMPOOED BEFORE BUYER GETS POSSESSION. ALSO HAS SECURITY SYSTEM.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Public records
• Financial info: Land lease of $1,500 per month (seller reported)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required for park residency

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport attached; 2 parking spaces (including 2 garage spaces listed)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story property; Front entry; Double-wide (mobile) body type; Located in a senior community; Park name: Lake Los Serranos Clubs
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Year built information from public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lake on the lot; Curbs, sidewalks, street lighting; Biking and foothills nearby; Suburban setting

Interior

• Kitchen: 6-burner stove
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level home; Turnkey condition
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a dedicated room; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.1% in Chino Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#299 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chino Valley Unified (suburban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #334 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $608k (77%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $180k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.69%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15111 Pipeline Ave #196	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$201	90
15111 Pipeline Ave #24	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$110,000	$76	87
15111 Pipeline Ave #204	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$143,000	$99	82
15111 Pipeline Ave #158	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$260,000	$193	81
15111 Pipeline Ave #274	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-7%)	3mo	$260,000	$195	80
15111 Pipeline Ave #120	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+5%)	7mo	$287,500	$190	75
15111 PIPELINE Unit SP 281	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$119,900	$89	73
15111 Pipeline #64	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-14%)	3mo	$280,000	$225	70
15111 Pipeline #59	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+14%)	2mo	$360,000	$219	70
15050 Monte Vista Ave #101	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-3%)	6mo	$173,500	$125	52
15050 Monte Vista Ave #26	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+3%)	9mo	$245,000	$165	48
15050 Monte Vista Ave #44	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	6mo	$199,000	$158	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $59,379
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $140,827
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91709

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $1,541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4432 Lilac Cir Chino Hills, CA	3.0	3.5	1695	$3,200	$1.89	4d	1	0.27mi
15040 Beechwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$3,600	$2.20	44d	1	0.37mi
4361 Los Serranos Blvd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1256	$3,200	$2.55	17d	1	0.38mi
4628 Bird Farm Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,250	$2.82	44d	1	0.46mi
15031 Ashwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	44d	1	0.47mi
15345 Murray Ave Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,395	$2.22	3d	1	0.64mi
4186 Val Verde Ave Chino Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$8,000	$8.00	44d	1	0.64mi
15101 Fairfield Ranch Rd Chino Hills, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$3,600	$3.42	2d	19	0.85mi
15447 Pomona Rincon Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1397	$3,350	$2.40	15d	2	0.90mi
3724 Alder Pl Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1240	$3,600	$2.90	22d	1	0.90mi
15996 Mihaylo Ct Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$3,850	$2.50	44d	1	1.26mi
16169 Singing Hills Dr Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1478	$3,600	$2.44	44d	1	1.27mi
15886 Ellington Way Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	1848	$3,300	$1.79	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    historical $180,000
15. 2016-09-01
    historical Hold Do Not Show
16. 2016-08-20
    status Active
17. 2016-08-16
    historical Hold Do Not Show
18. 2016-08-14
    price $78,800
19. 2016-08-14
    listed $788,000 Active
20. 2002-07-05
    soldstatus $37,900 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    THIS HOME IS IN A WONDERFUL OWNER OPERATED SENIOR PARK. GREAT BUY, OWNER ANXIOUS AND HAS PRICED TO SELL. OWNER WILL PAY FOR TERMITE & HOME OWNER POLICY. BEST BUY IN THE WHOLE PARK. 2 BEDR W/ MIRRORED CLOSET DOORS, 2 SLIDING GLASS DOORS(1 ON EACH SIDE OF FAMILY ROOM)REFRIGERATOR, CARPETS WILL BE SHAMPOOED BEFORE BUYER GETS POSSESSION. ALSO HAS SECURITY SYSTEM.

21. 2002-03-27
    listed $37,900 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    THIS HOME IS IN A WONDERFUL OWNER OPERATED SENIOR PARK. GREAT BUY, OWNER ANXIOUS AND HAS PRICED TO SELL. OWNER WILL PAY FOR TERMITE & HOME OWNER POLICY. BEST BUY IN THE WHOLE PARK. 2 BEDR W/ MIRRORED CLOSET DOORS, 2 SLIDING GLASS DOORS(1 ON EACH SIDE OF FAMILY ROOM)REFRIGERATOR, CARPETS WILL BE SHAMPOOED BEFORE BUYER GETS POSSESSION. ALSO HAS SECURITY SYSTEM.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,384
• − Management: −$3,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $16,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,988
• After-tax cash flow: $14,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $83,575
• Composite: 49.56/100
• National rank: #4275
• State rank: #334 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Chino Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #9993

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chino Hills, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 78,006
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,006
• Household income: $126,350
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Chinese 18% Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.62%
• Current HPI: 383.5042
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+374.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Coming Soon $180,000 CRMLS
• 2016-09-01 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2016-08-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2016-08-16 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2016-08-14 Price Changed $78,800 CRMLS
• 2016-08-14 Listed $788,000 CRMLS
• 2002-07-05 Sold (MLS) $37,900 CRMLS
• 2002-03-27 Listed $37,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $154 · +99.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.