27987 Jefferson Ave · Menifee, CA 92586

$215,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1936 0.50 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Developer/invester alert!- CURRENT HOME IS A TOTAL TEAR DOWN!! New zoning is high density residential (HDR; 6-9 units per city) This property consists of 2 LOTS for a total of half acre. 27987 Jefferson Ave presents a rare redevelopment opportunity in the heart of Menifee, CA, providing a blank canvas for an investment project. With ample space(subject to local planning/entitlements), this property offers exceptional upside in one of Southern California’s fastest-growing communities. Strategically located near schools, shopping, parks, and quick access to the I-215 Corridor, this site supports strong long-term value and redevelopment demand. If you’re an investor or a builder w

Key facts

• Blank canvas
• Corner parcel
• Contiguous lot

Tags

• CORNER PARCEL
• CONTIGUOUS LOT
• BLANK CANVAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: One total unit on the parcel; Lot and parcel information recorded with assessor
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Rural community setting

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story house; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor; No shared/common walls
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot is level/flat

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: All bedrooms located on the main level; Single-story layout; Main-level entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $216k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Romoland Elementary (suburban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #699 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,049/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.36%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $613,677
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25240 Antelope	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-8%)	4mo	$660,000	$393	56
27781 Van Buren Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (-3%)	20mo	$500,000	$282	55
28227 Cobbler Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-13%)	10mo	$535,000	$337	52
28455 Red Apple Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-13%)	2mo	$520,000	$328	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $36,934
• Equity at exit: $32,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $155,057
• Equity at exit: $18,667

Cash invested: $60,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,540/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $975

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $215,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,097	-5% $1,036	+0% $975	+5% $914	+10% $853
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $855	+0% $975	+5% $1,096	+10% $1,216
Rate	-1.0pp $1,084	-0.5pp $1,030	base $975	+0.5pp $919	+1.0pp $862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,975
• Closing costs: $6,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28303 Blackjack Dr Menifee, CA	4.0	2.0	2622	$3,400	$1.30	18d	1	1.43mi
26805 China Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1773	$3,000	$1.69	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $215,900 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,540
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,927
• − Management: −$2,927
• − Depreciation: −$6,281
• Taxable income: $8,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $9,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Romoland Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,935
• Composite: 37.36/100
• National rank: #8931
• State rank: #699 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $215,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $215,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $215,900 CRMLS
• 2009-02-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-10-10 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2005-04-21 Sold (MLS) $230,000 CRMLS
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-19 Listed $230,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,540 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.