163 16th St · Buffalo, NY 14213

$299,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Other public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1870 4,452 sqft lot $133/sqft · 27% above area Est $345k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Welcome! Fully rented with good paying tenants. There's a rehab single in rear with great potential included in sale. About five minutes to Downtown Buffalo, a walks distance to Elmwood Village, Allentown, General Hospital, Five Points, Lasalle Park, soon to be Ralph Wilson Park in 2026, Front Park, The Peace bridge and more.

Key facts

• Downtown buffalo
• Allentown
• General hospital

Tags

• DOWNTOWN BUFFALO
• ELMWOOD VILLAGE
• ALLENTOWN
• GENERAL HOSPITAL
• FIVE POINTS
• LASALLE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-721/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,133/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $299k implies a 1007% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $213,325 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,470
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -10.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $103,666
• Equity at exit: $217,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $291,770
• Equity at exit: $422,276

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $288,386

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 16th St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	24d	1	0.03mi
318 14th St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1619	$1,300	$0.80	11d	1	0.23mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	24d	1	0.23mi
157 14th St Unit Upper front Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2924	$1,200	$0.41	3d	1	0.25mi
217 Norwood Ave Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	44d	1	0.28mi
330 Bryant St Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	2224	$2,200	$0.99	20d	1	0.29mi
124 Normal Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1727	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	0.36mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,850	$0.72	20d	1	0.37mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,700	$0.67	14d	1	0.37mi
451 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1633	$3,305	$2.02	44d	1	0.42mi
405 W Ferry St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2480	$1,500	$0.60	44d	1	0.44mi
11 Hoyt St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2848	$1,775	$0.62	14d	1	0.48mi
569 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	12d	1	0.48mi
83 Baynes St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2550	$1,850	$0.73	14d	1	0.61mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	24d	1	0.62mi
740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	14d	1	0.69mi
126 Cottage St Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	14d	1	0.76mi
550 Busti Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1638	$1,500	$0.92	44d	1	0.82mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	0.89mi
385 Seventh St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2136	$1,250	$0.59	44d	1	0.91mi
506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1190	$2,995	$2.52	10d	6	0.92mi
552 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2500	$2,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.11mi
340 Bird Ave #202 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,950	$1.96	10d	1	1.19mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	44d	1	1.20mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	2d	14	1.44mi
7 Berkley Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2879	$1,250	$0.43	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $299,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Investors Welcome! Fully rented with good paying tenants. There's a rehab single in rear with great potential included in sale. About five minutes to Downtown Buffalo, a walks distance to Elmwood Village, Allentown, General Hospital, Five Points, Lasalle Park, soon to be Ralph Wilson Park in 2026, Front Park, The Peace bridge and more.

16. 2026-05-09
    historical
17. 2026-01-12
    price $310,000
18. 2025-12-25
    price $315,000
19. 2025-12-02
    price $325,000
20. 2025-11-09
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2025-02-01
    listed $285,000 Active
22. 2025-01-31
    historical
23. 2025-01-25
    price $289,900
24. 2024-10-01
    price $299,900
25. 2024-09-09
    price $339,900
26. 2024-08-23
    price $344,900
27. 2024-07-30
    listed $349,900 Active
28. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,210/yr (+$184/mo · 348.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$6,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1007.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $310,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $315,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $325,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $350,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $285,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $289,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $339,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $344,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $349,900 WNYREIS
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.