125 7th Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$162,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1900 3,000 sqft lot $138/sqft · 24% below area Est $214k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

125 7th Ave is back on the market with many new updates. The owner has installed a complete set of vinyl windows, freshly painted the exterior, and updated the roofing system. The heating system was installed by Reimer Heating & Cooling and includes a transferable warranty through 2031, giving the next owner added peace of mind. Inside, this 4-bedroom, 1-bath home features fresh interior paint, new flooring throughout, and refinished hardwood floors. Many of the major updates have already been completed, helping save the buyer time and money. The entire second floor offers a spacious loft-style bedroom, providing flexibility for a primary suite, home office, or additional living space

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Rear parking
• Heating system

Tags

• VINYL WINDOWS
• UPDATED ROOFING SYSTEM
• HEATING SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS LOFT-STYLE BEDROOM
• REAR PARKING
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Existing resale property
• Construction: Composite siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Irregular residential lot, 30 x 100; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($817/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $163k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,532 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,659
• List price: $162,800
• Delta: -23.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
254 Spaulding St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,137 (-3%)	1mo	$244,000	$215	80
203 Edward St	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,202 (+2%)	5mo	$250,000	$208	80
65 6th Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-7%)	8mo	$141,000	$129	76
19 5th Ave	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,145 (-3%)	6mo	$197,000	$172	75
871 Payne Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-3%)	0mo	$260,000	$227	75
29 1st Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-3%)	4mo	$76,000	$67	69
732 Barrally St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+11%)	2mo	$280,000	$215	65
49 Maple Ter	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-4%)	7mo	$200,000	$177	63
427 Walck Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-8%)	2mo	$255,000	$236	54
222 Fredericka St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,223 (+4%)	5mo	$165,000	$135	50
848 Eggert Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,077 (-8%)	7mo	$220,000	$204	48
33 Jackson Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-13%)	6mo	$230,000	$225	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,657
• Equity at exit: $24,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,342
• Equity at exit: $14,076

Cash invested: $45,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,349

Max offer price $162,800

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,700
• Closing costs: $4,884
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.20mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.31mi
317 Hedwig Dr Unit N North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	10d	1	0.41mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	2d	12	0.43mi
60 Fredericka St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	14d	1	0.63mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	24d	1	0.65mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	1.18mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.27mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $162,800 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $162,800 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   price $163,800 956-char remark
4. 2026-05-06
   price $164,800 956-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   price $167,800 956-char remark
6. 2026-04-27
   listed $168,800 Active 956-char remark
7. 2026-04-02
   historical
8. 2026-03-27
   price $151,800
9. 2026-03-24
   price $152,800
10. 2026-03-17
    price $153,400
11. 2026-03-03
    listed $155,400 Active
12. 2026-02-26
    historical
13. 2026-02-17
    price $155,400
14. 2026-02-01
    price $155,900
15. 2026-01-11
    listed $159,900 Active
16. 2025-10-30
    soldstatus $88,500 Closed
17. 2025-07-14
    status Pending
18. 2025-07-02
    price $99,900
19. 2025-06-17
    price $109,900
20. 2025-05-28
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 29.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$4,736
• Taxable loss: −$1,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $1,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+30.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $162,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $163,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $164,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $167,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $168,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $151,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $152,800 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $153,400 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $155,400 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $155,400 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $155,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-30 Sold (MLS) $88,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,731 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.