3509 Cannon Dr · Falls, PA 19067

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Built 2005 $100/sqft · 26% below area Est $135k · 26% under $951/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully updated home in Pennwood Crossing. 2-bedroom 2 baths with upgraded plumbing and modern appliances.

Key facts

• Upgraded plumbing
• Upgraded appliances
• Newly renovated

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pennsbury SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #67 of 539 in PA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $100k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,537
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -25.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 Aldrich Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-8%)	4mo	$130,000	$141	71
1445 Old Bristol Pike #71	0.46mi	2/1.0	900 (-10%)	7mo	$59,900	$67	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-11,017
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-521
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19067

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$951
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $951 · $11,412/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $109,000 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Fully updated home in Pennwood Crossing. 2-bedroom 2 baths with upgraded plumbing and modern appliances.

16. 2026-03-22
    listed $115,000 Active 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Fully updated home in Pennwood Crossing. 2-bedroom 2 baths with upgraded plumbing and modern appliances.

17. 2015-09-22
    soldstatus $22,000 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Pennwood Crossing 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home for sale. Lot lease on this home to Pennwood Crossing. Interested buyers will also make an application with Pennwood Crossing for a lot lease.

18. 2015-09-22
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Pennwood Crossing 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home for sale. Lot lease on this home to Pennwood Crossing. Interested buyers will also make an application with Pennwood Crossing for a lot lease.

19. 2015-09-21
    status Under Contract
20. 2015-08-22
    historical 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Pennwood Crossing 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home for sale. Lot lease on this home to Pennwood Crossing. Interested buyers will also make an application with Pennwood Crossing for a lot lease.

21. 2015-05-28
    listed $25,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Pennwood Crossing 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home for sale. Lot lease on this home to Pennwood Crossing. Interested buyers will also make an application with Pennwood Crossing for a lot lease.

22. 2015-05-28
    listed $25,000 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Pennwood Crossing 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home for sale. Lot lease on this home to Pennwood Crossing. Interested buyers will also make an application with Pennwood Crossing for a lot lease.

23. 2015-05-01
    historical
24. 2014-07-01
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − HOA: −$11,412
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pennsbury SD
• NCES district ID: 4218840
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,495
• Composite: 52.3/100
• National rank: #1594
• State rank: #67 of 539 in PA

Livability — Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 53,885
• Household income: $133,630
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1036.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.62%
• Current HPI: 281.8167
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+336.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $109,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-22 Sold (MLS) $22,000 TREND
• 2015-09-22 Sold (MLS) $22,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-21 Pending — TREND
• 2015-08-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-28 Listed $25,000 TREND
• 2015-05-28 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-07-01 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,286 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.