16 Primrose Ln · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$899,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1972 0.30 ac lot Est $1058k · 15% under $29/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Live the quintessential North Fork lifestyle here at 16 Primrose Lane. Set quietly on . 3 of an acre of property, nestled in the Private and Associated Bay Beach and Boating Community of Baywoods. A special enclave of homes with established tree-lined streets and ultimately trafficless. This home has its very own deeded dock and boatslip suitable for an 18 – 22 ft boat for endless enjoyment of the water with friends and family. The community shares exclusive access to a private sandy bay beach. The home itself is a rare find as a large and spacious, wide-lined ranch style home with a welcoming covered front porch entry to a large living room with wood-burning fireplace, L-shaped to an

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Induction cooktop
• Deeded dock

Tags

• DEEDED DOCK
• BOATSLIP
• PRIVATE SANDY BAY BEACH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• INDUCTION COOKTOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Baywoods Association; Association offers boat dock access and other amenities; Annual association fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Oversized parking; Private parking with storage; Garage door opener; Total of 8 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One and two story layout
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Boat slip and dock access; Mailbox; Partial fencing; Front and rear sprinklers; Private, level front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Covered, screened porch and covered patio; 7 total rooms; Full basement; Full attic with pull-down stairs and unfinished storage
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $900k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($199k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $900k).
• Recommended offer: $886k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $900k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $886,499 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.95%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,058,346
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Primrose Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,502 (0%)	0mo	$899,999	$360	100
250 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,282 (-9%)	6mo	$899,000	$394	72
58 Heritage Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,451 (-2%)	1mo	$1,398,000	$570	60
110 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,305 (-8%)	15mo	$975,000	$423	58
13 Harbor Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,430 (-3%)	23mo	$2,000,000	$823	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $1,546,623
• Equity at exit: $810,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.7%
• Equity multiple: 15.78×
• Total profit: $3,725,160
• Equity at exit: $1,748,500

Cash invested: $252,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax from tax record: −$1,207 /mo · $14,482/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $16,579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,013

Max offer price $899,999

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17,089	-5% $16,834	+0% $16,579	+5% $16,325	+10% $16,070
Rent	-10% $14,288	-5% $15,434	+0% $16,579	+5% $17,725	+10% $18,870
Rate	-1.0pp $17,033	-0.5pp $16,808	base $16,579	+0.5pp $16,346	+1.0pp $16,109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $225,000
• Closing costs: $27,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
599 Peconic Bay Blvd Jamesport, NY	3.0	4.0	3000	$29,000	$9.67	45d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $899,999 Active
3. 2025-11-29
   historical
4. 2025-11-13
   status Active
5. 2025-10-21
   price $899,999
6. 2025-10-14
   listed $999,999 Active
7. 2000-07-03
   soldstatus $280,000
8. 1997-11-03
   soldstatus $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,482 · $1,207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,846 · $1,237/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $348,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,414
• − Property taxes: −$14,482
• − Insurance: −$4,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,840
• − Management: −$27,840
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$26,182
• Taxable income: $196,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47,135
• After-tax cash flow: $151,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+361.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,482 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.