6368 Lincoln Blvd #102 · Palermo, CA 95966

$39,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 110 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $42k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home located in the peaceful and welcoming Lake Vista Mobile Home Park. This is a great opportunity to own a spacious and well maintained home with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a large living room. New HVAC system installed in 2024. Park also provides amenities such as pool and recreational areas near by. Don't let this opportunity slip by, call your Realtor today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1973
• Listed 110 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $650 monthly (land lease community); Rent includes pool
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Community features include: lake, watersports, fishing, boating, golf course, hiking, biking, horse trails, parks, dog park, hunting, foothills

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Park name: Lake Vista; Maintained road access; Accessible parking
• Utilities: District/public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected (standard); Sewer connected; Cable available; Telephone available in street; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (Model: FARWEST); Double body type; Mobile home remains on site; Single-story; Entry level 1; Has a view
• Construction: Aluminum construction materials; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Porch; Awning; Community pool; Shed; Chain link fence; Aluminum skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Formica counters; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range; Dishwasher; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One 3/4 bathroom; Shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Turnkey condition; Open kitchen to family room; No interior steps; Unfurnished; Side entry; One level
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.1% vs local median 3.8% in Palermo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,219 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Helen M. Wilcox Elementary (516 students, 83% FRL); Palermo (404 students, 78% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,399 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.59%
• DSCR: 6.05
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,760
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6368 Lincoln #2	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$42,000	$29	91
6368-#63 Lincoln Blvd	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$23,000	$17	84
6715 Lincoln Blvd	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$288,000	$214	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $61,053
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.51×
• Total profit: $140,153
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $320

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,083	-5% $1,072	+0% $1,060	+5% $1,049	+10% $1,038
Rent	-10% $929	-5% $995	+0% $1,060	+5% $1,126	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,080	-0.5pp $1,070	base $1,060	+0.5pp $1,050	+1.0pp $1,039

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $39,999 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,999 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,999 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,999 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,999 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,999 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,999 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,999 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,999 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $39,999
19. 2026-03-03
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 2025-10-31
    historical
21. 2025-08-22
    price $59,000
22. 2025-05-30
    price $63,000
23. 2025-04-28
    price $68,000
24. 2025-03-02
    listed $73,000 Active
25. 2024-07-31
    historical
26. 2024-06-23
    price $65,500
27. 2024-03-13
    listed $69,000 Active
28. 2022-08-01
    historical
29. 2022-07-16
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $12,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,080
• After-tax cash flow: $9,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palermo Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629540
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,628
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #12903
• State rank: #1149 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palermo

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1219
• US rank: #26161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palermo, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-61.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $39,999 CRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $63,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $68,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-02 Listed $73,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-23 Price Changed $65,500 CRMLS
• 2024-03-13 Listed $69,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-07-16 Listed $105,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.