125 Hildreth · Piney, AR 71913

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1950 0.37 ac lot $90/sqft · 30% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Extra storage
• Outdoor living space

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• ADDITIONAL MOBILE HOME
• MOTHER IN LAW QUARTERS
• EXTRA STORAGE
• LAKE HAMILTON SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.9% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $149k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,731
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -51.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Westoak	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	18mo	$252,000	$158	68
160 Bull Bayou Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	21mo	$250,000	$149	56
108 Squire Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (-8%)	13mo	$205,000	$134	52
206 Fairwood Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-12%)	13mo	$160,000	$109	47
104 Zealplumb Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	11mo	$295,000	$184	46
105 Parkland Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,479 (-11%)	10mo	$254,600	$172	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,641
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,424
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 McCurry Ter Apt A Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.5	1375	$1,495	$1.09	14d	1	0.32mi
112 McCurry Ter Unit B Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.5	1375	$1,995	$1.45	14d	1	0.35mi
127a New Leaf Ln Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$875	$0.76	23d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   historical Active Under Contract 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

2. 2026-05-20
   status Under Contract 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

3. 2026-04-21
   price $149,000 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

4. 2026-04-21
   price $149,000 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

5. 2026-01-13
   listed $169,000 Active 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

6. 2026-01-13
   listed $169,000 New Listing 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Investor special! This property is a modest family home with potential rental income and outdoor living space, situated in a rural area of Hot Springs with minimal traffic on a dead in street. Large living area, lots of storage, laundry room, screened in porch. The additional mobile home adds flexibility for guests, mother in law quarters, extra storage or rental income. Three bedroom two bath in main living home, mobile has 2 bedroom 1 bath. Nice yard area. Needs updating and repairs but will make a great addition to your portfolio. Lake Hamilton Schools.

7. 2025-07-31
   historical
8. 2025-02-03
   listed $175,000 New Listing
9. 2003-10-06
   soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piney

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+67.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — HSBOR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,000 HSBOR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $169,000 HSBOR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $169,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $175,000 CARMLS
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.