552 Walnut St · San Carlos, CA 94070

$2,950,000

9 bd · 8.0 ba · 7,877 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1978 7,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 7 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of lively San Carlos, this delightful 7-unit building presents a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and convenience in one of the Peninsulas most coveted communities. The property boasts six well-appointed one-bedroom units with assigned parking space, and a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath unit complete with its own attached 2-car garageperfect for those seeking a little extra space and privacy. Everyday living is made simpler with on-site app-operated laundry facilities, ensuring practicality meets ease. Families will love the added bonus of being within the highly regarded San Carlos Elementary School District, offering access to top-tier schools. Beyond the building itself, the location is truly unbeatable. Youre just moments away from San Carloss vibrant downtown, where youll find a mix of trendy restaurants, charming boutiques, and lush parkseverything you need to savor the best of this warm, welcoming neighborhood. Whether youre looking for a smart investment opportunity or a place to call home, this property offers it all. Experience the perfect blend of community charm, urban access, and everyday comfort. Your San Carlos story starts heredont let it slip away!

Key facts

• Charming boutiques
• Lush parks
• Vibrant downtown

Tags

• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE
• VIBRANT DOWNTOWN
• TRENDY RESTAURANTS
• CHARMING BOUTIQUES
• LUSH PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area: 7,877; Zoning: R40000
• Financial info: Seven-unit complex; Annual rental income: $167,482; Annual gross income: $165,807; Gross scheduled income: $167,482; Gross rent multiplier: 17.61; Total expenses: $86,660; Other expenses: $3,745; Vacancy factor: 1; Landscape expense: $1,440; Trash expense: $13,707; Utility expenses: $8,038

Exterior

• Parking: Six covered carport spaces; Two-car attached garage; Assigned parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities; Separate common area meter; Separate electric meters
• Home design: Individual ownership; One building
• Construction: Concrete slab foundation; Elastomeric roof
• Exterior features: Elastomeric roof; Concrete slab foundation; Public utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator(s); Exhaust fan; Laminate and stone countertops (varies by unit)
• Bedrooms: Six 1-bedroom units; One 3-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Six 1-bath units (full); One 3-bedroom unit with 2 full baths and 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Coin-operated laundry; Electric heating
• Laundry & utility: Coin-operated laundry; Separate electric meters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7 × 9-bed/8.5-bath units multifamily listed at $2.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($169k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($41k rent vs $2.95M).
• Recommended offer: $2.60M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 0.7% in San Carlos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#30 in CA, #1,083 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Carlos Elementary (suburban): math 70% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #30 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $41,160/mo this rent would consume 206% of the median local household income ($240k/yr) (locally 626% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $217k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $196k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $826k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$346k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.60M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $577k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $515k; list at $2.95M implies a 473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,596,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.43%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.65% appreciation · 5.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $1,983,639
• Equity at exit: $1,976,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $5,384,441
• Equity at exit: $3,695,496

Cash invested: $826,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94070

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 41.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $41,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax from tax record: −$1,754 /mo · $21,052/yr
• Insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,644
• Net cashflow: $14,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,359

Max offer price $2,950,000

Occupancy floor 61%

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	9	8.5	$41,160
Total (7 units)			$41,160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $737,500
• Closing costs: $88,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $2,950,000 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of lively San Carlos, this delightful 7-unit building presents a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and convenience in one of the Peninsulas most coveted communities. The property boasts six well-appointed one-bedroom units with assigned parking space, and a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath unit complete with its own attached 2-car garageperfect for those seeking a little extra space and privacy. Everyday living is made simpler with on-site app-operated laundry facilities, ensuring practicality meets ease. Families will love the added bonus of being within the highly regarded San Carlos Elementary School District, offering access to top-tier schools. Beyond the building itself, the location is truly unbeatable. Youre just moments away from San Carloss vibrant downtown, where youll find a mix of trendy restaurants, charming boutiques, and lush parkseverything you need to savor the best of this warm, welcoming neighborhood. Whether youre looking for a smart investment opportunity or a place to call home, this property offers it all. Experience the perfect blend of community charm, urban access, and everyday comfort. Your San Carlos story starts heredont let it slip away!

16. 2026-04-21
    price $2,950,000 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of lively San Carlos, this delightful 7-unit building presents a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and convenience in one of the Peninsulas most coveted communities. The property boasts six well-appointed one-bedroom units with assigned parking space, and a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath unit complete with its own attached 2-car garageperfect for those seeking a little extra space and privacy. Everyday living is made simpler with on-site app-operated laundry facilities, ensuring practicality meets ease. Families will love the added bonus of being within the highly regarded San Carlos Elementary School District, offering access to top-tier schools. Beyond the building itself, the location is truly unbeatable. Youre just moments away from San Carloss vibrant downtown, where youll find a mix of trendy restaurants, charming boutiques, and lush parkseverything you need to savor the best of this warm, welcoming neighborhood. Whether youre looking for a smart investment opportunity or a place to call home, this property offers it all. Experience the perfect blend of community charm, urban access, and everyday comfort. Your San Carlos story starts heredont let it slip away!

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $3,526,984 Active 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of lively San Carlos, this delightful 7-unit building presents a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and convenience in one of the Peninsulas most coveted communities. The property boasts six well-appointed one-bedroom units with assigned parking space, and a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath unit complete with its own attached 2-car garageperfect for those seeking a little extra space and privacy. Everyday living is made simpler with on-site app-operated laundry facilities, ensuring practicality meets ease. Families will love the added bonus of being within the highly regarded San Carlos Elementary School District, offering access to top-tier schools. Beyond the building itself, the location is truly unbeatable. Youre just moments away from San Carloss vibrant downtown, where youll find a mix of trendy restaurants, charming boutiques, and lush parkseverything you need to savor the best of this warm, welcoming neighborhood. Whether youre looking for a smart investment opportunity or a place to call home, this property offers it all. Experience the perfect blend of community charm, urban access, and everyday comfort. Your San Carlos story starts heredont let it slip away!

18. 2026-01-15
    listed $3,526,984 Active 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of lively San Carlos, this delightful 7-unit building presents a rare opportunity to enjoy both comfort and convenience in one of the Peninsulas most coveted communities. The property boasts six well-appointed one-bedroom units with assigned parking space, and a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath unit complete with its own attached 2-car garageperfect for those seeking a little extra space and privacy. Everyday living is made simpler with on-site app-operated laundry facilities, ensuring practicality meets ease. Families will love the added bonus of being within the highly regarded San Carlos Elementary School District, offering access to top-tier schools. Beyond the building itself, the location is truly unbeatable. Youre just moments away from San Carloss vibrant downtown, where youll find a mix of trendy restaurants, charming boutiques, and lush parkseverything you need to savor the best of this warm, welcoming neighborhood. Whether youre looking for a smart investment opportunity or a place to call home, this property offers it all. Experience the perfect blend of community charm, urban access, and everyday comfort. Your San Carlos story starts heredont let it slip away!

19. 1984-06-29
    soldstatus $515,090
20. 1984-06-29
    soldstatus $515,000
21. 1977-11-01
    soldstatus $255,000
22. 1977-11-01
    soldstatus $27,727

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $21,052 · $1,754/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,420 · $1,868/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,368/yr (+$114/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $493,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$165,246
• − Property taxes: −$21,052
• − Insurance: −$14,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$39,514
• − Management: −$39,514
• − Depreciation: −$85,818
• Taxable income: $128,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30,726
• After-tax cash flow: $138,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Carlos Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0634290
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $126,513
• Composite: 69.56/100
• National rank: #302
• State rank: #30 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Carlos

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1083

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Carlos, CA
• County: San Mateo County · 733,415 people
• City population: 30,447
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,447
• Household income: $240,074
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 626.0

Population outlook (San Mateo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 864,008 people
• By 2030: 910,523 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 997,285 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 1,071,189 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 1,197,206 · +38.6%
• By 2100: 1,192,523 · +38.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Asian 22% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Mateo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.3) · D 73.5% · R 23.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 48.7pp · 2024: 50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.3 2020: D+57.7 2016: D+57.7 2012: D+44.8 2008: D+48.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.65%
• Current HPI: 377.7698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.86%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1056.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $2,950,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $2,950,000 MLSListings
• 2026-01-15 Listed $3,526,984 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $3,526,984 MLSListings
• 1984-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 1984-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $515,090 Public Records
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,727 Public Records
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,052 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.