8391 W Mystery Dr · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$359,999

None bd · None ba · 1,920 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Don't miss this great investment opportunity in Arizona City! Well-maintained duplex featuring two 3 bed/2 bath units, each with a 1-car garage and private yard. Major updates include a new roof (2023), exterior paint (2023), newer HVAC units (2019 & 2021), and updated hot water heaters (2024). Unit B features fresh interior paint, newer appliances, and owned solar. One unit is tenant-occupied with a lease in place through May 2027, providing immediate income stability. Both units offer covered patios with awnings. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance, cash-flowing asset.

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• Covered patios
• Newer hvac units

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEWER HVAC UNITS
• UPDATED HOT WATER HEATERS
• OWNED SOLAR
• COVERED PATIOS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; Garage door opener; On-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity from APS with solar; Public sewer; City water (city franchise)
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; One building
• Construction: Wood frame and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Heating & cooling: Solar and electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-765/yr) — negative. Per door: $-32/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,604/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $360k implies a 757% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,400 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-62,579
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-60,475
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 23.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,685

Max offer price $348,744

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $38	+0% $-64	+5% $-166	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-167	+0% $-64	+5% $39	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $28	base $-64	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-252

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,604
Total (2 units)			$2,604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9088 W Rafael Dr Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,550	$1.16	0d	1	0.54mi
15310 S Kline Pl Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,150	$1.18	0d	1	0.80mi
15610 S Moon Valley Rd Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,600	$0.97	0d	1	0.82mi
15147 S Yava Rd Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	1.06mi
9301 W Century Dr Unit A (273) Arizona City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	7d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,999 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,999 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,999 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,999 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,999 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,999 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $359,999 Active
17. 2025-11-04
    historical
18. 2025-11-04
    historical
19. 2025-04-01
    listed $365,000 Active
20. 2025-04-01
    listed $365,000 Active
21. 2009-10-30
    soldstatus $42,000
22. 2009-09-02
    historical
23. 2009-05-25
    listed $47,900
24. 2009-05-14
    historical
25. 2009-03-16
    historical
26. 2009-03-13
    listed $69,900
27. 2008-10-08
    listed $72,900
28. 2006-01-12
    soldstatus $190,000
29. 2005-12-30
    soldstatus $190,000
30. 2005-12-22
    historical
31. 2005-08-26
    listed $190,000
32. 2003-12-12
    soldstatus $130,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,380/yr (+$115/mo · 138.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$7,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $359,999 ARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-01 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $365,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-10-30 Sold (MLS) $42,000 ARMLS
• 2009-09-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-05-25 Listed $47,900 ARMLS
• 2009-05-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-03-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-03-13 Listed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2008-10-08 Listed $72,900 ARMLS
• 2006-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Sold (MLS) $190,000 ARMLS
• 2005-12-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-08-26 Listed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2003-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $130,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.