9405 Loras St · Bayonet Point, FL 34654

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1970 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED, SELLER SAYS BRING OFFERS. .. .LOOKING FOR YOUR FIRST HOME, SECOND HOME OR INVESTMENT. THIS IS IT A MOVE IN READY 2/1 POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM/DEN/OFFICE. THIS PROPERTY HAS BEEN BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED AND DECORATED AND IS MOVE IN READY. NICE SIZE LIVING SPACE OPEN FLOOR PLAN, LARGE FRONT COVERED PORCH TO ENJOY YOUR CUP OF COFFEE. PROPERTY HAS A VINYL FENCE IN FRONT, AND IS FULLY FENCE IN BACK YARD WITH A CHANINLINK FENCE. A ONE CARPORT AND A GOOD SIZE UTILITY SHED. SELLERS WILL BE PAINTING THE OUTSIDE AND SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFER.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Laundry area
• Carport

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• TWO SHEDS
• LAUNDRY AREA
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.14 acre (zoning R1MH); Located in county; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available (BB/HS)
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Residential property; Completed condition; One story; Faces south; Entry on one level
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built as single-wide
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Screened porch; Exterior storage; Shed(s); Cleared lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/Window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside/other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $852 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $65k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.19%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,040
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9324 Peony St	0.16mi	2/2.0	742 (+3%)	3mo	$165,000	$222	85
9405 Cherokee Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	728 (+1%)	14mo	$82,000	$113	81
9420 Kiowa Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	764 (+6%)	11mo	$179,500	$235	79
9127 Bourbon St	0.27mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	12mo	$35,999	$50	76
9430 Mango St	0.26mi	2/2.0	784 (+9%)	2mo	$170,000	$217	72
9115 Bourbon St	0.29mi	2/1.0	770 (+7%)	5mo	$95,000	$123	66
9202 Teak St	0.28mi	2/2.0	784 (+9%)	9mo	$91,000	$116	65
9232 Teak St	0.25mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	17mo	$140,000	$182	59
9605 Andy Dr	0.66mi	2/1.5	672 (-7%)	3mo	$145,000	$216	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $38,962
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $85,336
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9440 Bourbon St Unit 9 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,275	$1.82	24d	1	0.12mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	1d	59	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    listed $65,000 Active
15. 2016-05-23
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED, SELLER SAYS BRING OFFERS. .. .LOOKING FOR YOUR FIRST HOME, SECOND HOME OR INVESTMENT. THIS IS IT A MOVE IN READY 2/1 POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM/DEN/OFFICE. THIS PROPERTY HAS BEEN BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED AND DECORATED AND IS MOVE IN READY. NICE SIZE LIVING SPACE OPEN FLOOR PLAN, LARGE FRONT COVERED PORCH TO ENJOY YOUR CUP OF COFFEE. PROPERTY HAS A VINYL FENCE IN FRONT, AND IS FULLY FENCE IN BACK YARD WITH A CHANINLINK FENCE. A ONE CARPORT AND A GOOD SIZE UTILITY SHED. SELLERS WILL BE PAINTING THE OUTSIDE AND SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFER.

16. 2016-05-16
    status Pending 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED, SELLER SAYS BRING OFFERS. .. .LOOKING FOR YOUR FIRST HOME, SECOND HOME OR INVESTMENT. THIS IS IT A MOVE IN READY 2/1 POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM/DEN/OFFICE. THIS PROPERTY HAS BEEN BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED AND DECORATED AND IS MOVE IN READY. NICE SIZE LIVING SPACE OPEN FLOOR PLAN, LARGE FRONT COVERED PORCH TO ENJOY YOUR CUP OF COFFEE. PROPERTY HAS A VINYL FENCE IN FRONT, AND IS FULLY FENCE IN BACK YARD WITH A CHANINLINK FENCE. A ONE CARPORT AND A GOOD SIZE UTILITY SHED. SELLERS WILL BE PAINTING THE OUTSIDE AND SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFER.

17. 2016-03-01
    price $34,999 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED, SELLER SAYS BRING OFFERS. .. .LOOKING FOR YOUR FIRST HOME, SECOND HOME OR INVESTMENT. THIS IS IT A MOVE IN READY 2/1 POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM/DEN/OFFICE. THIS PROPERTY HAS BEEN BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED AND DECORATED AND IS MOVE IN READY. NICE SIZE LIVING SPACE OPEN FLOOR PLAN, LARGE FRONT COVERED PORCH TO ENJOY YOUR CUP OF COFFEE. PROPERTY HAS A VINYL FENCE IN FRONT, AND IS FULLY FENCE IN BACK YARD WITH A CHANINLINK FENCE. A ONE CARPORT AND A GOOD SIZE UTILITY SHED. SELLERS WILL BE PAINTING THE OUTSIDE AND SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFER.

18. 2016-02-09
    listed $39,000 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED, SELLER SAYS BRING OFFERS. .. .LOOKING FOR YOUR FIRST HOME, SECOND HOME OR INVESTMENT. THIS IS IT A MOVE IN READY 2/1 POSSIBLE 3RD BEDROOM/DEN/OFFICE. THIS PROPERTY HAS BEEN BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED AND DECORATED AND IS MOVE IN READY. NICE SIZE LIVING SPACE OPEN FLOOR PLAN, LARGE FRONT COVERED PORCH TO ENJOY YOUR CUP OF COFFEE. PROPERTY HAS A VINYL FENCE IN FRONT, AND IS FULLY FENCE IN BACK YARD WITH A CHANINLINK FENCE. A ONE CARPORT AND A GOOD SIZE UTILITY SHED. SELLERS WILL BE PAINTING THE OUTSIDE AND SELLERS WILL ENTERTAIN ALL OFFER.

19. 1998-06-05
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $7,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+251.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-23 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-01 Price Changed $34,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-09 Listed $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.