1717 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$475,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 4,600 sqft lot Est $456k · at est. $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcoming front porch leads to entry framed by home office with French doors. Family room with a cast stone fireplace and a wall of windows providing an abundance of natural light. Island kitchen with built-in seating space offers a 5-burner gas cooktop and extends to the dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a spacious bedroom, French door entry to primary bathroom, dual vanities, glass enclosed shower, a split walk-in closet and a linen closet. Secondary bedrooms just off the front entry. Covered patio. Utility room and mud room just off the rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

Key facts

• French door entry
• Island kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• HOME OFFICE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FRENCH DOOR ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include fitness center, lake, park, and playground
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee; HOA covers front yard maintenance, grounds maintenance, management fees, and full use of facilities; HOA management: Insight Association Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; Assigned parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: City water with individual water meter; Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Community mailbox; Standard power and sewer (municipal utility district: no)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to other properties; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Smart home features included
• Construction: Brick and stone veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Gutters; Wood fencing; Creek frontage; Few trees; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island; Farm sink; Built-in cabinets; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Granite countertops; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on level 1 each with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks, separate shower, separate vanities, linen closet, medicine cabinet, built-in cabinets, and granite countertops; Secondary bathroom with built-in cabinets and granite countertops
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smart home system; Walk-in closets; Two living areas; One dining area; 10 total rooms; One-level home
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on level 1 with built-in cabinets and space for a freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $476k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-901/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $465k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $424k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $424k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $423,895 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $456,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-2%)	6mo	$449,900	$222	90
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-2%)	9mo	$502,900	$248	87
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+13%)	3mo	$464,900	$200	71
2736 Acadia Mews	0.03mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	63
1604 Victoria Pl	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	1mo	$474,900	$203	59
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.05mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	6mo	$474,900	$203	59
2628 Muirwood Way	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	3mo	$475,900	$204	57
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (-0%)	1mo	$594,000	$290	56
1624 Palo Duro Way	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,349 (+14%)	10mo	$499,999	$213	55
1604 Palo Duro Way	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+14%)	8mo	$524,900	$225	54
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+12%)	7mo	$525,000	$228	50
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+7%)	10mo	$530,000	$241	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-94,173
• Equity at exit: $70,958

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-135,573
• Equity at exit: $41,147

Cash invested: $133,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$595 /mo · $7,138/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$890
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,334

Max offer price $465,038

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $89	+0% $-75	+5% $-240	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-243	+0% $-75	+5% $92	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $46	base $-75	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,975
• Closing costs: $14,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	0d	1	0.09mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	26d	1	1.28mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	45d	1	1.34mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	20d	1	1.38mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	26d	1	1.44mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 528-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $475,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,658
• − Property taxes: −$7,138
• − Insurance: −$2,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,069
• − Management: −$4,069
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$13,844
• Taxable loss: −$8,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $1,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $475,900 Zillow
• 2026-06-19 Listed $475,900 NTREIS