451 Southern Oaks Drive Dr · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$199,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1963 0.63 ac lot $87/sqft · 34% below area Est $302k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this spacious 5 bedroom, 2½ bath home offering generous living space inside and out. The backyard overlooks beautiful Oyster Creek, providing a scenic and relaxing backdrop. With a bit of TLC, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to create the home you’ve always envisioned. *selling as-is*

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,206
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -34.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 Southern Oaks Drive Dr	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,280 (0%)	0mo	$199,000	$87	98
135 Sugar Cane Cir	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,246 (-2%)	3mo	$319,000	$142	75
54 Forest Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,384 (+5%)	7mo	$355,000	$149	70
62 Raintree Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (-6%)	2mo	$339,900	$159	69
112 Lily St	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,268 (-0%)	3mo	$274,900	$121	69
223 Wedgewood St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,340 (+3%)	3mo	$299,900	$128	63
55 Willow Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,396 (+5%)	8mo	$356,000	$149	57
333 Banyan Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,402 (+5%)	8mo	$314,900	$131	57
60 Wedgewood Ct	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,180 (-4%)	8mo	$259,000	$119	57
217 Larkspur St	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,484 (+9%)	9mo	$298,500	$120	54
104 Daylily Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,541 (+11%)	2mo	$420,000	$165	40
51 Orchid Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,614 (+15%)	3mo	$385,000	$147	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,509
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,629
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,719/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,029

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
428 Magnolia Ln Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	1d	1	1.17mi
422 Magnolia Ln Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	1d	1	1.21mi
409 Magnolia Ln Richwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	3d	1	1.23mi
418 Magnolia St Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	3d	1	1.24mi
407 Magnolia St Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	3d	1	1.24mi
416 Magnolia Ln Richwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	15d	1	1.25mi
405 Magnolia Ln Richwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	44d	1	1.26mi
403 Magnolia Ln Richwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	44d	1	1.27mi
412 Magnolia St Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	24d	1	1.27mi
410 Magnolia Ln Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	13d	1	1.28mi
406 Magnolia St Lake Jackson, TX	5.0	3.5	2560	$2,799	$1.09	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Discover the potential in this spacious 5 bedroom, 2½ bath home offering generous living space inside and out. The backyard overlooks beautiful Oyster Creek, providing a scenic and relaxing backdrop. With a bit of TLC, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to create the home you’ve always envisioned. *selling as-is*

2. 2026-05-01
   price $199,000 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Discover the potential in this spacious 5 bedroom, 2½ bath home offering generous living space inside and out. The backyard overlooks beautiful Oyster Creek, providing a scenic and relaxing backdrop. With a bit of TLC, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to create the home you’ve always envisioned. *selling as-is*

3. 2026-03-16
   listed $210,000 Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Discover the potential in this spacious 5 bedroom, 2½ bath home offering generous living space inside and out. The backyard overlooks beautiful Oyster Creek, providing a scenic and relaxing backdrop. With a bit of TLC, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to create the home you’ve always envisioned. *selling as-is*

4. 2016-12-20
   soldstatus
5. 2016-12-16
   soldstatus Sold 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

6. 2016-11-27
   status Pending, Continue to Show 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

7. 2016-11-17
   status Option Pending 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

8. 2016-10-29
   price $169,999 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

9. 2016-09-10
   status Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

10. 2016-09-03
    status Option Pending 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

11. 2016-08-10
    price $171,433 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

12. 2016-06-15
    price $168,900 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

13. 2016-05-18
    price $173,500 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

14. 2016-05-11
    listed $170,000 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Priced way below appraised value. UNIQUE HOME ON BEAUTIFUL CREEK LOT. Wonderful home for entertaining! Kitchen opens to large living area with Satillo Tile. New Windows across the back provide a lovely view of the creek. Roof approximately 4 yrs old. New french doors leading to Nice patio in the backyard. Also has a study. Large open concept.

15. 2015-01-30
    soldstatus
16. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus
17. 2014-05-13
    listed $159,900
18. 2003-04-29
    soldstatus
19. 2000-08-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,719
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $6,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2016-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-11-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-11-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-10-29 Price Changed $169,999 HARMLS
• 2016-09-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-09-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-08-10 Price Changed $171,433 HARMLS
• 2016-06-15 Price Changed $168,900 HARMLS
• 2016-05-18 Price Changed $173,500 HARMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2015-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-29 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2014-05-13 Listed $159,900 BCBR
• 2003-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,719 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.