7312 Tanglewood · Coffee City, TX 75763

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1970 5,174 sqft lot $153/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Small cottage Tucked Beneath a canopy of towering trees offers a serene lifestyle , perfectly at peace among the woods and just Steps Away from Lake Palestine. Owner did not finish out so come with your Ideas and make this your own to live in, or maybe and Airbnb, Enjoy Morning Coffee in the Wrap arounf Porch Here where the World Slows Down and the quiet beauty of country Living Awaits you

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• 5,174 sq ft lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• CANOPY OF TOWERING TREES
• STEPS AWAY FROM LAKE PALESTINE
• WRAP AROUND PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.03%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,326
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -52.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $74,608
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $210,181
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75763

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2025-11-03
    price $115,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This Small cottage Tucked Beneath a canopy of towering trees offers a serene lifestyle , perfectly at peace among the woods and just Steps Away from Lake Palestine. Owner did not finish out so come with your Ideas and make this your own to live in, or maybe and Airbnb, Enjoy Morning Coffee in the Wrap arounf Porch Here where the World Slows Down and the quiet beauty of country Living Awaits you

17. 2025-09-23
    price $119,900 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This Small cottage Tucked Beneath a canopy of towering trees offers a serene lifestyle , perfectly at peace among the woods and just Steps Away from Lake Palestine. Owner did not finish out so come with your Ideas and make this your own to live in, or maybe and Airbnb, Enjoy Morning Coffee in the Wrap arounf Porch Here where the World Slows Down and the quiet beauty of country Living Awaits you

18. 2025-09-06
    listed $139,900 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This Small cottage Tucked Beneath a canopy of towering trees offers a serene lifestyle , perfectly at peace among the woods and just Steps Away from Lake Palestine. Owner did not finish out so come with your Ideas and make this your own to live in, or maybe and Airbnb, Enjoy Morning Coffee in the Wrap arounf Porch Here where the World Slows Down and the quiet beauty of country Living Awaits you

19. 2021-07-20
    soldstatus
20. 2011-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,488/yr (+$124/mo · 241.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $2,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coffee City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #15290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,319

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.53%
• Current HPI: 295.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2021-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.