272 Cascade Falls Ln · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$249,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $142/sqft · 20% below area Est $314k · 20% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home features a modern layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the entry, leading to an open-concept floorplan combining the kitchen with the living and dining areas. The luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private back corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Thunder Rock HOA); $25 monthly HOA fee covering common area maintenance; Community trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Lennar; Faces southeast
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; No exterior steps; Front porch; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Open floor plan; Main level primary suite; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $234,379 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,994
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -20.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Cascade Falls Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	2mo	$250,990	$143	87
268 Rock Springs Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	4mo	$245,990	$143	80
121 Southridge Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-7%)	3mo	$325,990	$199	72
300 Rock Springs Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+8%)	3mo	$275,999	$145	70
244 Rock Springs Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	3mo	$263,990	$134	65
104 Southridge Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	2mo	$311,999	$160	65
105 Southridge Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	2mo	$292,999	$150	65
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	1mo	$281,999	$145	64
248 Rock Springs Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	2mo	$284,999	$146	64
260 Rock Springs Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	4mo	$258,990	$132	62
272 Rock Springs Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	3mo	$279,999	$144	62
304 Rock Springs Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	3mo	$256,990	$131	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,024
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,945
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,219

Max offer price $249,990

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.25mi
169 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	3.0	2525	$2,750	$1.09	4d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 41 DOM

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   This single-level home features a modern layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the entry, leading to an open-concept floorplan combining the kitchen with the living and dining areas. The luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private back corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $249,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $251,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,990 Active 32 DOM

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   This single-level home features a modern layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the entry, leading to an open-concept floorplan combining the kitchen with the living and dining areas. The luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private back corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $271,990 Active 31 DOM

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   This single-level home features a modern layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the entry, leading to an open-concept floorplan combining the kitchen with the living and dining areas. The luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private back corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $271,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $271,990 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,990 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,990 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $271,990 Active 573-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$2,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $1,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 28 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a modern layout with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with potential for further updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $249,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $251,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Listed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Listed $271,990 Unlock MLS