309 Afterglow Dr · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$1,250,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1983 0.57 ac lot $723/sqft · 6% below area Est $1333k · 6% under $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Roche Harbor Retreat. Nestled on a . 57-acre bordering iconic Roche Harbor Resort, this inviting south-facing gem offers the perfect blend of privacy & proximity, with direct access to one of the San Juans most beloved destinations. The home welcomes you with a light-filled great room, main floor bedroom & bath, upper primary ensuite with balcony, cedar-lined closets. Daylight lower level with wood stove adds warmth & flexibility for guests, hobbies or entertainment. Step outside to a peaceful deck with filtered water views of the resort, relax and soak in the island atmosphere. Easy access to pool, pickleball, marina, dining & more. 2-car garage, deer-fenced garden.

Key facts

• Daylight lower level
• Direct access
• South-facing gem

Tags

• SOUTH-FACING GEM
• DIRECT ACCESS
• LIGHT-FILLED GREAT ROOM
• UPPER PRIMARY ENSUITE
• CEDAR-LINED CLOSETS
• DAYLIGHT LOWER LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($144k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.25M).
• Recommended offer: $1.10M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $350k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $245k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $483k; list at $1.25M implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,100,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.19%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,333,460
• List price: $1,250,000
• Delta: -6.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 Neil Bay Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,671 (-3%)	20mo	$825,000	$494	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $562,400
• Equity at exit: $186,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $1,474,237
• Equity at exit: $108,077

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax from tax record: −$648 /mo · $7,773/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $12,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,793

Max offer price $1,250,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	43d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 277 DOM
16. 2025-10-29
    price $1,250,000
17. 2025-09-08
    price $1,445,000
18. 2025-08-27
    listed $1,495,000 Active
19. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $483,000
20. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $483,000
21. 2003-03-31
    listed $495,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,773 · $648/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,250 · $1,021/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,477/yr (+$373/mo · 57.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$7,773
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable income: $131,438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31,545
• After-tax cash flow: $112,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roche Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+152.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $1,250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $1,445,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Listed $1,495,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $483,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-09 Sold (MLS) $483,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-31 Listed $495,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,773 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.