17680 Old Highway 105 E · Deerwood, TX 77306

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 2018 0.33 ac lot $140/sqft · 11% above area Est $158k · 11% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Ponderosa Pines, this charming home, built in 2018 offers 1,248 sq. ft. of beautifully updated living space on a 14,593 sq. ft. lot. The home features 3 beds & 2 baths. As you step inside, you’re welcomed by an open-concept living area highlighted by a built-in entertainment center. The space flows seamlessly into the dining area, which features charming beadboard detailing & continues into the kitchen. The kitchen features a wide double sink, beautiful backsplash, ample storage space & a large kitchen bar—perfect for meal preparation or casual dining. Conveniently located near the front of the home, the spacious primary bed offers a large walk-in closet & an ensuite bathroom w/double sinks, a separate shower & a garden tub. The home also includes 2 generously sized secondary beds & a second bath. Recent updates include fresh interior paint & a new roof. Ideally located just minutes from Highway 105 E, this move-in-ready home combines comfort, convenience & value.

Key facts

• Wide double sink
• Ample storage space
• Large kitchen bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• WIDE DOUBLE SINK
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• LARGE KITCHEN BAR
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,885
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 10.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17532 Old Highway 105 E	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	11mo	$190,000	$152	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,968
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,196
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $223	+0% $163	+5% $102	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $94	+0% $163	+5% $231	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $207	base $163	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	1.04mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.30mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	9d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $175,000 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Located in Ponderosa Pines, this charming home, built in 2018 offers 1,248 sq. ft. of beautifully updated living space on a 14,593 sq. ft. lot. The home features 3 beds & 2 baths. As you step inside, you’re welcomed by an open-concept living area highlighted by a built-in entertainment center. The space flows seamlessly into the dining area, which features charming beadboard detailing & continues into the kitchen. The kitchen features a wide double sink, beautiful backsplash, ample storage space & a large kitchen bar—perfect for meal preparation or casual dining. Conveniently located near the front of the home, the spacious primary bed offers a large walk-in closet & an ensuite bathroom w/double sinks, a separate shower & a garden tub. The home also includes 2 generously sized secondary beds & a second bath. Recent updates include fresh interior paint & a new roof. Ideally located just minutes from Highway 105 E, this move-in-ready home combines comfort, convenience & value.

16. 2026-03-22
    listed $180,000 Active 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Located in Ponderosa Pines, this charming home, built in 2018 offers 1,248 sq. ft. of beautifully updated living space on a 14,593 sq. ft. lot. The home features 3 beds & 2 baths. As you step inside, you’re welcomed by an open-concept living area highlighted by a built-in entertainment center. The space flows seamlessly into the dining area, which features charming beadboard detailing & continues into the kitchen. The kitchen features a wide double sink, beautiful backsplash, ample storage space & a large kitchen bar—perfect for meal preparation or casual dining. Conveniently located near the front of the home, the spacious primary bed offers a large walk-in closet & an ensuite bathroom w/double sinks, a separate shower & a garden tub. The home also includes 2 generously sized secondary beds & a second bath. Recent updates include fresh interior paint & a new roof. Ideally located just minutes from Highway 105 E, this move-in-ready home combines comfort, convenience & value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$213
• After-tax cash flow: $2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $222 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.