9723 Dutton Ln · East Milton, FL 32583

$294,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 10,846 sqft lot Garage $165/sqft · at area comps Est $300k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Liberty Farms Community! The Cali model, one of our most sought-after designs, offers a fantastic open layout for relaxed living. Offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a covered back patio, 2-car garage, and the 'Smart Home Connect' System with various convenient Smart Home devices. The well-appointed kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, built-in microwave, quiet dishwasher, corner pantry, island bar, eye-catching wood-look flooring, and plush carpet in the bedrooms. Quartz Countertops in the Kitchen & Baths. Bedroom 1 and the adjoining beautiful bath boast a large walk-in closet, double vanity sinks, and more. Fabric Hurricane window and door protection is also included. Enjoy the stylish curb appeal in this rapidly growing area with easy access to the interstate.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Corner pantry
• Island bar

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SMART HOME CONNECT SYSTEM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CORNER PANTRY
• ISLAND BAR
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 36% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1007 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $227,578 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -1.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9735 Dutton Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,787 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	97
9727 Dutton Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,787 (0%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	96
5084 Rainwater Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,787 (0%)	3mo	$295,990	$166	96
5094 Rainwater Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,787 (0%)	1mo	$289,900	$162	94
5078 Rainwater Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,787 (0%)	4mo	$299,900	$168	92
5027 Rainwater Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,830 (+2%)	5mo	$285,000	$156	87
5063 Rainwater Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,870 (+5%)	2mo	$295,000	$158	86
5009 Rainwater Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,870 (+5%)	1mo	$299,900	$160	86
5072 Rainwater Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-12%)	1mo	$269,900	$172	72
9732 Dutton Ln	0.02mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+13%)	2mo	$307,900	$153	67
5090 Rainwater Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-12%)	4mo	$286,300	$183	66
9460 American Farms Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-1%)	1mo	$400,000	$226	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-61,886
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,406
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 1007
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,628

Max offer price $254,655

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-176	+0% $-278	+5% $-380	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-368	+0% $-278	+5% $-188	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-203	base $-278	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9861 Shangri La West Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,125	$1.47	63d	1	1.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management included)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankElectric water heaterElectric heating controlsCentral electric A/C
• Home design: Contemporary single-story home1 storyResid Single Family zoning
• Construction: Built in 2026Vinyl sidingShingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPaved road accessLot subject to covenantsSubdivision: Liberty Farms

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooringCarpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen islandRecessed lightingPantrySplit-bedroom layoutWasher/dryer hookupPainted woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   statusdays on marketlisting id $294,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on marketlisting id $294,900 Pending 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,900 Active 46 DOM

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Welcome to Liberty Farms Community! The Cali model, one of our most sought-after designs, offers a fantastic open layout for relaxed living. Offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a covered back patio, 2-car garage, and the 'Smart Home Connect' System with various convenient Smart Home devices. The well-appointed kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, built-in microwave, quiet dishwasher, corner pantry, island bar, eye-catching wood-look flooring, and plush carpet in the bedrooms. Quartz Countertops in the Kitchen & Baths. Bedroom 1 and the adjoining beautiful bath boast a large walk-in closet, double vanity sinks, and more. Fabric Hurricane window and door protection is also included. Enjoy the stylish curb appeal in this rapidly growing area with easy access to the interstate.

5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $294,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $294,900 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Welcome to Liberty Farms Community! The Cali model, one of our most sought-after designs, offers a fantastic open layout for relaxed living. Offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a covered back patio, 2-car garage, and the 'Smart Home Connect' System with various convenient Smart Home devices. The well-appointed kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, built-in microwave, quiet dishwasher, corner pantry, island bar, eye-catching wood-look flooring, and plush carpet in the bedrooms. Quartz Countertops in the Kitchen & Baths. Bedroom 1 and the adjoining beautiful bath boast a large walk-in closet, double vanity sinks, and more. Fabric Hurricane window and door protection is also included. Enjoy the stylish curb appeal in this rapidly growing area with easy access to the interstate.

7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,400 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,400 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,400 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,400 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $300,400 Active 877-char remark
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $300,400 Active

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Welcome to Liberty Farms Community! The Cali model, one of our most sought-after designs, offers a fantastic open layout for relaxed living. Offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a covered back patio, 2-car garage, and the 'Smart Home Connect' System with various convenient Smart Home devices. The well-appointed kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, built-in microwave, quiet dishwasher, corner pantry, island bar, eye-catching wood-look flooring, and plush carpet in the bedrooms. Quartz Countertops in the Kitchen & Baths. Bedroom 1 and the adjoining beautiful bath boast a large walk-in closet, double vanity sinks, and more. Fabric Hurricane window and door protection is also included. Enjoy the stylish curb appeal in this rapidly growing area with easy access to the interstate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$8,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home devices can improve convenience and add value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bagdad Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Martin Luther King Middle School F FL #373/571 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Milton High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management included)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankElectric water heaterElectric heating controlsCentral electric A/C
• Home design: Contemporary single-story home1 storyResid Single Family zoning
• Construction: Built in 2026Vinyl sidingShingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patioPaved road accessLot subject to covenantsSubdivision: Liberty Farms

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooringCarpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen islandRecessed lightingPantrySplit-bedroom layoutWasher/dryer hookupPainted woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-06-07 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $294,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $294,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $300,400 ECAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $300,400 PARMLS