18 Joan Dr · American Canyon, CA 94503

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1954 5,746 sqft lot $368/sqft · 30% below area Est $568k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Napa Valley Dream Awaits! Don't miss this incredible opportunity to create your perfect home and perhaps a secondary income stream in one of California's most desirable locations. This charming 3-bed, 2-bath single-story house is a true blank canvas, waiting for your vision and creativity. Located in the heart of scenic Napa County, this 1,085 sq ft home sits on a generous 5,745 sq ft lot, offering plenty of space for a stunning outdoor living area, a garden, or a detached Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). With California's favorable ADU laws, this lot provides the perfect footprint to build a guest cottage, a private home office, or a high-end rental unit to maximize your investment. While it needs a major rehab, this is your chance to gain sweat equity and design a home that fits your unique style and needs. Imagine an open-concept kitchen, a spa-like master bath, or a cozy living room the possibilities are endless. The fantastic location offers easy access to world-class wineries, gourmet dining, and outdoor recreation. This property is perfect for a savvy investor looking to capitalize on multi-unit potential, a contractor with a knack for renovation, or anyone looking to live the Napa Valley lifestyle without the premium price tag. Schedule a showing today and unlock the potential of this hidden gem!

Key facts

• Outdoor living area
• Outdoor recreation
• Generous lot

Tags

• ACCESSORY DWELLING UNIT
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• GENEROUS LOT
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($755/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in American Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#133 in CA, #4,684 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,718 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $568,268
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -29.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
258 Los Altos Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,085 (0%)	1mo	$535,000	$493	97
264 Los Altos Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,085 (0%)	8mo	$425,000	$392	90
16 Carolyn Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,085 (0%)	14mo	$625,000	$576	84
1009 Donaldson Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,094 (+1%)	1mo	$530,000	$484	82
204 Los Altos Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,059 (-2%)	13mo	$537,000	$507	78
215 Carolyn Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,072 (-1%)	20mo	$588,000	$549	70
119 W Carolyn Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+7%)	20mo	$550,000	$475	62
127 Rio Del Mar	0.27mi	3/1.0	987 (-9%)	9mo	$545,000	$552	60
104 Los Altos Pl	0.35mi	3/1.0	987 (-9%)	5mo	$515,000	$522	60
159 S Napa Junction Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	10mo	$510,000	$510	57
1611 Rio Grande St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,032 (-5%)	19mo	$599,000	$580	54
143 W Carolyn Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	975 (-10%)	18mo	$550,000	$564	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-60,678
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-47,792
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94503

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,442/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,328

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $176	+0% $63	+5% $-50	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-72	+0% $63	+5% $197	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $164	base $63	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Jana Way American Canyon, CA	4.0	2.0	1464	$3,449	$2.36	24d	1	0.29mi
300 American Ln American Canyon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$2,935	$3.47	14d	18	0.70mi
100 Toscana Dr American Canyon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1466	$3,828	$2.61	14d	5	0.75mi
800 Reliant Way American Canyon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,460	$2.58	14d	4	0.84mi
15 Lena Dr American Canyon, CA	4.0	2.0	1290	$3,150	$2.44	14d	1	1.27mi
137 Imelda St Unit 3BR/1BA Vallejo, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$3,250	$3.01	14d	1	1.40mi
123 David Ct Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,149	$2.38	14d	1	1.48mi
300 Swan Way Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,775	$2.45	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-10
    listed $399,000 Active 1328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1328 chars)

    Your Napa Valley Dream Awaits! Don't miss this incredible opportunity to create your perfect home and perhaps a secondary income stream in one of California's most desirable locations. This charming 3-bed, 2-bath single-story house is a true blank canvas, waiting for your vision and creativity. Located in the heart of scenic Napa County, this 1,085 sq ft home sits on a generous 5,745 sq ft lot, offering plenty of space for a stunning outdoor living area, a garden, or a detached Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). With California's favorable ADU laws, this lot provides the perfect footprint to build a guest cottage, a private home office, or a high-end rental unit to maximize your investment. While it needs a major rehab, this is your chance to gain sweat equity and design a home that fits your unique style and needs. Imagine an open-concept kitchen, a spa-like master bath, or a cozy living room the possibilities are endless. The fantastic location offers easy access to world-class wineries, gourmet dining, and outdoor recreation. This property is perfect for a savvy investor looking to capitalize on multi-unit potential, a contractor with a knack for renovation, or anyone looking to live the Napa Valley lifestyle without the premium price tag. Schedule a showing today and unlock the potential of this hidden gem!

18. 2025-09-17
    listed $399,000 Active
19. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $370,000 Closed
20. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $370,000
21. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $370,000
22. 2023-05-27
    status Pending
23. 2023-05-17
    status Active
24. 2023-04-26
    status Pending
25. 2023-04-14
    listed $395,000 Active
26. 2023-04-14
    listed $395,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,442 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,442 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,442
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,271
• − Management: −$3,271
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$6,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $2,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — American Canyon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: American Canyon, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 21,841
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,841
• Household income: $121,088
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 33% Hispanic / Latino 31% White 21% Two or more races 15% Black 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 15% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.47%
• Current HPI: 366.9139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $399,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $399,000 BAREIS
• 2023-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) $370,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) $370,000 BAREIS
• 2023-05-27 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-05-17 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-04-26 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $395,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $395,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,442 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.