315 SE Aspen Dr #53 · Aumsville, OR 97325

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1994 $83/sqft · 27% below area Est $123k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. A walk in closet and bathroom in the primary bedroom. Newappliances. New flooring in 2 of the bedrooms, the primary bathroom, and the kitchen. This home also has carport offeringextra parking as well as a shed for extra storage. Painting in Primary Bedroom has been completed.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Carport
• New appliances

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• CARPORT
• SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• PAINTING IN PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.0% in Aumsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#188 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Cascade SD 5 (rural): math 41% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #26 of 183 in OR (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $90k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.65%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,277
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -26.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 S Aspen Dr Unit 64	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	19mo	$35,000	$32	83
337 Aspen Dr S #337	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	15mo	$125,000	$116	82
129 Carmel Dr SE #39	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+10%)	7mo	$112,000	$94	71
713 SE Stafford St SE #50	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+10%)	7mo	$128,900	$109	68
706 Stafford St #67	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+10%)	14mo	$115,000	$97	63
130 Carmel Dr #104	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+14%)	10mo	$112,000	$91	63
10323 Mill Crk SE	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (+3%)	14mo	$210,000	$189	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $31,747
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $87,261
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97325

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
131-145 Cleveland St Aumsville, OR	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	13d	1	0.31mi
439 N 1st St Aumsville, OR	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,850	$1.76	13d	1	0.36mi
382 Shamrock St Aumsville, OR	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,895	$1.65	21d	1	0.40mi
389 Clover St Aumsville, OR	3.0	1.5	1044	$2,195	$2.10	13d	1	0.51mi
160 N 7th St Aumsville, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.53mi
170 N 7th St Aumsville, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.53mi
110 N 9th St Unit 130 Aumsville, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	13d	1	0.64mi
910 N 4th St Aumsville, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,595	$2.06	13d	1	0.72mi
975 N 4th St Aumsville, OR	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,995	$1.98	23d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $95,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. A walk in closet and bathroom in the primary bedroom. Newappliances. New flooring in 2 of the bedrooms, the primary bathroom, and the kitchen. This home also has carport offeringextra parking as well as a shed for extra storage. Painting in Primary Bedroom has been completed.

16. 2026-03-05
    price $99,999 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. A walk in closet and bathroom in the primary bedroom. Newappliances. New flooring in 2 of the bedrooms, the primary bathroom, and the kitchen. This home also has carport offeringextra parking as well as a shed for extra storage. Painting in Primary Bedroom has been completed.

17. 2026-02-14
    price $105,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. A walk in closet and bathroom in the primary bedroom. Newappliances. New flooring in 2 of the bedrooms, the primary bathroom, and the kitchen. This home also has carport offeringextra parking as well as a shed for extra storage. Painting in Primary Bedroom has been completed.

18. 2026-01-22
    listed $110,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. A walk in closet and bathroom in the primary bedroom. Newappliances. New flooring in 2 of the bedrooms, the primary bathroom, and the kitchen. This home also has carport offeringextra parking as well as a shed for extra storage. Painting in Primary Bedroom has been completed.

19. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus $28,298

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 51.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $6,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cascade SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4102780
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,311
• Composite: 46.44/100
• National rank: #5337
• State rank: #26 of 183 in OR

Livability — Aumsville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #12294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aumsville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.02%
• Current HPI: 302.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+235.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $95,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $99,999 WVMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $105,000 WVMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $110,000 WVMLS
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,298 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.