410 1st St NW · Crosby, ND 58730

$129,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Custom gas stove
• Updated electrical
• Gas radiator heaters

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• SHINGLED ROOF
• CUSTOM GAS STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RADIATOR HEATERS
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking and off-street driveway (no garage)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available; Electricity connected; Phone and cable available; Water connected; sewer connected; natural gas not available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block and stone foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Rain gutters; Exterior lighting; Partially fenced yard; Landscaped, level rectangular lot (50' x 140'); City street frontage; public maintained road; chip-and-seal and paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); no central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Full unfinished basement with interior entry and storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#63 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Divide County 1 (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #121 of 169 in ND (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Divide County population projected at +85% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.04%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,084
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Central Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,560 (+12%)	20mo	$90,000	$58	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $42,644
• Equity at exit: $58,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $113,997
• Equity at exit: $89,738

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58730

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $129,500 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,500 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    status Active
14. 2026-03-14
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-02
    price $129,500
16. 2025-12-02
    status Active
17. 2025-11-04
    status Pending
18. 2025-09-08
    price $139,500
19. 2025-06-17
    listed $149,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $3,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$773
• After-tax cash flow: $4,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Divide County 1
• NCES district ID: 3805160
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,720
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #10182
• State rank: #121 of 169 in ND

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #7199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosby, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,369

Population outlook (Divide County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,235 people
• By 2030: 3,697 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 4,763 · +47.2%
• By 2050: 5,975 · +84.7%
• By 2075: 9,534 · +194.7%
• By 2100: 12,784 · +295.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 36% Slovak 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Divide

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 21.2% · R 76.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-03-14 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $129,500 GNMLS
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — GNMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $139,500 GNMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $149,500 GNMLS