1175 Cove Creek Rd · Greers Ferry, AR 72131

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1966 1.18 ac lot $100/sqft · 27% below area Est $123k · 27% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the quiet of Cove Creek in this rustic, two-story cabin tucked into the trees and just minutes from the lake. Offering 896 sq ft, this cozy retreat is the perfect getaway spot, Airbnb opportunity, or fishing cabin. The main level features a functional kitchen, a comfortable living area, and a small dining nook. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious loft-style bedroom currently set up to sleep four beds comfortably, along with a full bathroom and a charming upper balcony overlooking the woods. Both levels include their own window units for heating and cooling. The cabin is being sold as-is, giving the new owner freedom to update or enjoy exactly as it is. Sellers are also offering a 1 year home warranty. A great opportunity for anyone wanting an affordable lake-area get away!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Full bathroom
• Small dining nook

Tags

• RUSTIC CABIN
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• SMALL DINING NOOK
• LOFT STYLE BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 1.8% in Greers Ferry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#251 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Quitman School District (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,275
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -26.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1175 Cove Creek Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	896 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$67	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $68,808
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $186,977
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72131

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $689

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $337	+0% $311	+5% $286	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $268	+0% $311	+5% $354	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $334	base $311	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Under Contract 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Escape to the quiet of Cove Creek in this rustic, two-story cabin tucked into the trees and just minutes from the lake. Offering 896 sq ft, this cozy retreat is the perfect getaway spot, Airbnb opportunity, or fishing cabin. The main level features a functional kitchen, a comfortable living area, and a small dining nook. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious loft-style bedroom currently set up to sleep four beds comfortably, along with a full bathroom and a charming upper balcony overlooking the woods. Both levels include their own window units for heating and cooling. The cabin is being sold as-is, giving the new owner freedom to update or enjoy exactly as it is. Sellers are also offering a 1 year home warranty. A great opportunity for anyone wanting an affordable lake-area get away!

2. 2026-02-19
   price $90,000 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Escape to the quiet of Cove Creek in this rustic, two-story cabin tucked into the trees and just minutes from the lake. Offering 896 sq ft, this cozy retreat is the perfect getaway spot, Airbnb opportunity, or fishing cabin. The main level features a functional kitchen, a comfortable living area, and a small dining nook. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious loft-style bedroom currently set up to sleep four beds comfortably, along with a full bathroom and a charming upper balcony overlooking the woods. Both levels include their own window units for heating and cooling. The cabin is being sold as-is, giving the new owner freedom to update or enjoy exactly as it is. Sellers are also offering a 1 year home warranty. A great opportunity for anyone wanting an affordable lake-area get away!

3. 2026-01-10
   price $120,000 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Escape to the quiet of Cove Creek in this rustic, two-story cabin tucked into the trees and just minutes from the lake. Offering 896 sq ft, this cozy retreat is the perfect getaway spot, Airbnb opportunity, or fishing cabin. The main level features a functional kitchen, a comfortable living area, and a small dining nook. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious loft-style bedroom currently set up to sleep four beds comfortably, along with a full bathroom and a charming upper balcony overlooking the woods. Both levels include their own window units for heating and cooling. The cabin is being sold as-is, giving the new owner freedom to update or enjoy exactly as it is. Sellers are also offering a 1 year home warranty. A great opportunity for anyone wanting an affordable lake-area get away!

4. 2025-11-22
   listed $159,000 New Listing 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Escape to the quiet of Cove Creek in this rustic, two-story cabin tucked into the trees and just minutes from the lake. Offering 896 sq ft, this cozy retreat is the perfect getaway spot, Airbnb opportunity, or fishing cabin. The main level features a functional kitchen, a comfortable living area, and a small dining nook. Upstairs, you'll find a spacious loft-style bedroom currently set up to sleep four beds comfortably, along with a full bathroom and a charming upper balcony overlooking the woods. Both levels include their own window units for heating and cooling. The cabin is being sold as-is, giving the new owner freedom to update or enjoy exactly as it is. Sellers are also offering a 1 year home warranty. A great opportunity for anyone wanting an affordable lake-area get away!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$573
• After-tax cash flow: $3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman School District
• NCES district ID: 0511880
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,003
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5229
• State rank: #63 of 238 in AR

Livability — Greers Ferry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #18144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,881
• Population (ZIP): 4,099

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.46%
• Current HPI: 243.7407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-43.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $120,000 CARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $159,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $420 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.