Plan 1741 Plan · Menifee, CA 92596

$570,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · SingleFamily · 277 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Solar energy system
• Kitchen island
• Near local schools

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER AT PRIMARY BATH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME
• NEAR LOCAL SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $570,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $597,937.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $571k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $424k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $371k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $370,673 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $597,937
• List price: $570,990
• Delta: -4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31300 Pine Oak Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,741 (0%)	1mo	$635,339	$365	96
31336 Pine Oak Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,741 (0%)	0mo	$597,039	$343	96
31155 London Plane Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-2%)	0mo	$590,830	$347	86
31083 London Plane Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-2%)	1mo	$584,830	$343	83
31152 Southern Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-2%)	3mo	$569,990	$334	82
31313 Burflower Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-10%)	1mo	$596,610	$379	76
31361 Burflower Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-10%)	0mo	$594,990	$378	75
31443 Water Oak Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-10%)	3mo	$609,665	$387	69
31131 London Plane Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,975 (+13%)	0mo	$599,990	$304	59
31107 London Plane Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,975 (+13%)	1mo	$617,490	$313	58
31071 London Plane Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,975 (+13%)	1mo	$635,990	$322	57
31128 Southern Oak Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,975 (+13%)	3mo	$592,990	$300	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $238,169
• Equity at exit: $538,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $742,326
• Equity at exit: $1,161,660

Cash invested: $167,422 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,136
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$747 /mo · $8,969/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $-1,204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,231

Max offer price $423,732

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,484
• Closing costs: $17,938
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31058 Water Beech Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,900	$2.29	2d	1	0.27mi
31319 Autumn Blaze Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,350	$2.13	1d	1	0.30mi
Autumn Blaze Dr , CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,075	$1.95	2d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $570,990 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $570,990 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $570,990 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $570,990 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,990 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $570,990 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $570,990 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $570,990 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $570,990 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $570,990 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $570,990 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $570,990 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $570,990 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $570,990 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

15. 2025-11-15
    price $590,990 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2025-09-20
    status Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2025-09-10
    historical 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

18. 2025-09-05
    listed $585,990 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * 9-ft. ceilings * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,494
• − Property taxes: −$8,969
• − Insurance: −$2,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,558
• − Management: −$3,558
• − Depreciation: −$17,395
• Taxable loss: −$25,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,116
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $570,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $590,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-20 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Listed $585,990 Zillow