960 County Road 5021 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2022 0.46 ac lot $186/sqft · 13% above area Est $158k · 13% over ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity!! Spacious "UNRESTRICTED LOT' with potential for both residential and Commercial use. Previously a Car Dealership, this proeprty is ready for your vision. Build your dream home, expand the existing structure, or develop a large project. Large, open space with endless possibilities, perfect for families, investors or bussiness owner.

Key facts

• Unrestricted lot
• Large open space
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED LOT
• POTENTIAL FOR RESIDENTIAL USE
• POTENTIAL FOR COMMERCIAL USE
• PREVIOUSLY A CAR DEALERSHIP
• LARGE OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,333 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,743
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 13.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-40,723
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-46,745
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,461/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $142,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-154	+0% $-205	+5% $-255	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-306	-5% $-255	+0% $-205	+5% $-154	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-159	base $-205	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $179,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Great Opportunity!! Spacious "UNRESTRICTED LOT' with potential for both residential and Commercial use. Previously a Car Dealership, this proeprty is ready for your vision. Build your dream home, expand the existing structure, or develop a large project. Large, open space with endless possibilities, perfect for families, investors or bussiness owner.

15. 2026-04-18
    listed $200,000 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Great Opportunity!! Spacious "UNRESTRICTED LOT' with potential for both residential and Commercial use. Previously a Car Dealership, this proeprty is ready for your vision. Build your dream home, expand the existing structure, or develop a large project. Large, open space with endless possibilities, perfect for families, investors or bussiness owner.

16. 2026-04-14
    historical
17. 2026-04-10
    price $200,000
18. 2026-03-28
    listed $230,000 Active
19. 2023-11-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 33.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,461
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$5,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,461 · +168.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.