1010 Clay Cir · Lyons, TX 77879

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2022 0.96 ac lot $150/sqft · 6% below area Est $180k · 6% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to peace, space, and possibility. Built in 2022, this beautiful 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm. Step inside to an open, airy living space where the kitchen flows effortlessly into the living room-complete with warm butcher block countertops, a gas stove, and plenty of cabinet space for home-cooked meals and gatherings. Tile flooring throughout keeps the home cool, clean, and easy to maintain, while the spacious bathroom features a walk-in shower designed for everyday comfort. Under the same roof, an additional 600 sq ft of unfinished space invites you to dream-create a guest apartment, rental opportunity, home office, or studio tailored to your lifestyle. Outside, the open and cleared lot with mature trees sets the scene for relaxing evenings, weekend bbq's, and room to grow. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat, space to entertain, or a home with future potential, this property offers it all.

Key facts

• Unfinished space
• Gas stove
• Tile flooring

Tags

• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• GAS STOVE
• TILE FLOORING
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• UNFINISHED SPACE
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerville El (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 225 students, 77% FRL); Somerville Int (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 109 students, 72% FRL); Somerville H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 199 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,900
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -5.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Forest Oak Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	975 (-14%)	0mo	$179,900	$185	46
367 Blackberry Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+7%)	13mo	$149,000	$123	44
503 Giebel Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,300 (+14%)	20mo	$249,900	$192	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $21,172
• Equity at exit: $59,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $73,497
• Equity at exit: $80,910

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77879

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,458/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $304	+0% $255	+5% $207	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $184	+0% $255	+5% $327	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $299	base $255	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
341 Little Berry Rd Somerville, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	45d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    price $169,900 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Welcome home to peace, space, and possibility. Built in 2022, this beautiful 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm. Step inside to an open, airy living space where the kitchen flows effortlessly into the living room-complete with warm butcher block countertops, a gas stove, and plenty of cabinet space for home-cooked meals and gatherings. Tile flooring throughout keeps the home cool, clean, and easy to maintain, while the spacious bathroom features a walk-in shower designed for everyday comfort. Under the same roof, an additional 600 sq ft of unfinished space invites you to dream-create a guest apartment, rental opportunity, home office, or studio tailored to your lifestyle. Outside, the open and cleared lot with mature trees sets the scene for relaxing evenings, weekend bbq's, and room to grow. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat, space to entertain, or a home with future potential, this property offers it all.

19. 2026-04-13
    price $169,900 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Welcome home to peace, space, and possibility. Built in 2022, this beautiful 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm. Step inside to an open, airy living space where the kitchen flows effortlessly into the living room-complete with warm butcher block countertops, a gas stove, and plenty of cabinet space for home-cooked meals and gatherings. Tile flooring throughout keeps the home cool, clean, and easy to maintain, while the spacious bathroom features a walk-in shower designed for everyday comfort. Under the same roof, an additional 600 sq ft of unfinished space invites you to dream-create a guest apartment, rental opportunity, home office, or studio tailored to your lifestyle. Outside, the open and cleared lot with mature trees sets the scene for relaxing evenings, weekend bbq's, and room to grow. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat, space to entertain, or a home with future potential, this property offers it all.

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $180,000 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Welcome home to peace, space, and possibility. Built in 2022, this beautiful 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm. Step inside to an open, airy living space where the kitchen flows effortlessly into the living room-complete with warm butcher block countertops, a gas stove, and plenty of cabinet space for home-cooked meals and gatherings. Tile flooring throughout keeps the home cool, clean, and easy to maintain, while the spacious bathroom features a walk-in shower designed for everyday comfort. Under the same roof, an additional 600 sq ft of unfinished space invites you to dream-create a guest apartment, rental opportunity, home office, or studio tailored to your lifestyle. Outside, the open and cleared lot with mature trees sets the scene for relaxing evenings, weekend bbq's, and room to grow. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat, space to entertain, or a home with future potential, this property offers it all.

21. 2026-02-23
    listed $180,000 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Welcome home to peace, space, and possibility. Built in 2022, this beautiful 2-bed, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and country charm. Step inside to an open, airy living space where the kitchen flows effortlessly into the living room-complete with warm butcher block countertops, a gas stove, and plenty of cabinet space for home-cooked meals and gatherings. Tile flooring throughout keeps the home cool, clean, and easy to maintain, while the spacious bathroom features a walk-in shower designed for everyday comfort. Under the same roof, an additional 600 sq ft of unfinished space invites you to dream-create a guest apartment, rental opportunity, home office, or studio tailored to your lifestyle. Outside, the open and cleared lot with mature trees sets the scene for relaxing evenings, weekend bbq's, and room to grow. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat, space to entertain, or a home with future potential, this property offers it all.

22. 2026-01-05
    soldstatus
23. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$651/yr (+$54/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,458
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 4,775

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 178.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $180,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+33.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,458 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.