266 Justice Dr · Broad Creek, NC 28570

$394,010

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $433k · 9% under $27/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRE SALE! NO SHOWINGS! The one-story Chatham is a classic to the JC Jackson's Carolina Series. With four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, this split bedroom home features an impressive entry that showcases your dining room and study just inside the front door, then leads you to the expansive great room open to the breakfast area, and kitchen with center eat at island. With tall cathedral ceilings and windows across the back of the home that provide views of the backyard, this home was built for entertaining! The owner's bedroom is separate from the secondary bedrooms with easy access to the garage through the conveniently located laundry room. The unique layout of this floor plan allo

Key facts

• One story
• Center eat at island
• Expansive great room

Tags

• ONE STORY
• SPLIT BEDROOM
• IMPRESSIVE ENTRY
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• CENTER EAT AT ISLAND
• TALL CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $394k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($108k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $394k).
• Cap rate 33.8% vs local median 22.6% in Broad Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#340 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,912/mo this rent would consume 255% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $110k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $394,010

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.22%
• DSCR: 5.37
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $433,394
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Gales Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (-0%)	11mo	$435,000	$213	78
115 Eudora Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,030 (-1%)	8mo	$425,000	$209	70
101 Eudora Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,906 (-7%)	2mo	$425,000	$223	64
115 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-2%)	12mo	$405,000	$201	61
265 Bay Run	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (+2%)	4mo	$390,000	$186	57
281 Bay Run	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-2%)	7mo	$430,000	$213	53
110 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-8%)	13mo	$390,000	$207	51
111 Dixon Pond Dr Lot 96	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	16mo	$369,999	$209	44
210 Jones Ridge Ln Lot 89	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	13mo	$374,199	$211	43
200 Jones Ridge Ln Lot 91	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	16mo	$369,999	$209	42
211 Fawns Path Cir Lot 83	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	15mo	$393,000	$222	38
129 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-14%)	11mo	$387,000	$220	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $511,538
• Equity at exit: $58,748

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.76×
• Total profit: $1,187,008
• Equity at exit: $34,067

Cash invested: $110,323 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$493 /mo · $5,910/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,131
• Net cashflow: $9,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,481

Max offer price $394,010

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,502
• Closing costs: $11,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $394,010 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $178,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,071
• − Property taxes: −$5,910
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,315
• − Management: −$14,315
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$11,462
• Taxable income: $108,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,057
• After-tax cash flow: $82,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs and maintenance, particularly to the roof and exterior siding, to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be old and possibly leaking.
• Major exterior siding — The siding appears weathered and may need repainting or replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and could benefit from some maintenance to improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve the home's curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be old and possibly leaking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding appears weathered and may need repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is sparse and could benefit from some maintenance to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve the home's curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Broad Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #340
• US rank: #13718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broad Creek, NC
• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $394,010 Hive MLS