90 Vista Cir · Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente, CA 95476

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $279k · 10% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely home located in a quiet, private family mobile home park, an ideal place to start! This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features an attached carport and a private, fully fenced yard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home shows true pride of ownership throughout. Community amenities include a guest parking area and an inviting in-ground pool for residents to enjoy.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Attached carport
• Guest parking area

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GUEST PARKING AREA
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Sonoma area
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,200
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2 total parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide
• Construction: Manufactured by Fleetwood Homes; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Located in Sonoma Rancho Vista park; Guest parking available

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Dishwasher; Free standing gas range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Stone countertops in kitchen; Dishwasher; Free standing gas range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.62%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Rancho Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	6mo	$289,000	$258	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-371
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $33,596
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17353 Park Ave Unit 17351 Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	14d	1	0.32mi
17253 Park Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,600	$2.77	43d	1	0.36mi
16914 Sonoma Hwy Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,595	$3.46	43d	1	0.44mi
18109 Barrett Ave Unit 2 Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,295	$3.02	14d	1	0.63mi
18260 Las Lomas Rd Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$3,750	$2.78	23d	1	0.77mi
18495 Riverside Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,800	$3.26	14d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-04-09
   historical Contingent (Show)
8. 2026-03-13
   price $250,000
9. 2026-01-27
   price $279,000
10. 2025-12-01
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,994
• − Management: −$2,994
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $5,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $7,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $250,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $279,000 BAREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $295,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $451 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.