15770 N Oracle Rd Unit B4 · Catalina, AZ 85739

$87,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $60/sqft · 68% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home offers easy, affordable living, a home that feels warm and inviting in a great NW location. A total redo with new kitchen cabinets, stainless steel appliances, updated fixtures, whole home replumbed with Pex plumbing in 2022, heating and air in 2023, Pergo flooring in 2022, newer lighting, ceiling fans and leaving this home move in ready! Perfect outdoor entertaining on your cozy, 2025 sun room, 195 sq. ft. The spacious interior offers a comfortable layout split plan. The master bathroom has a great soaking tub and separate shower. This is for the home only-- land is leased at $630 per month, and is in a 55+ park. Great location near shopping and restaurants. Would also make a great Vacation Home! Completely fenced with wood privacy fencing. There is a lemon tree on front side of home. There is also a storage shed as well. A MUST SEE.

Key facts

• Pex plumbing
• Heating and air
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• WHOLE HOME REPLUMBED
• PEX PLUMBING
• HEATING AND AIR

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $87,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$273,495) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 4.3% in Catalina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#200 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $82,250 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.65%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,495
• List price: $87,500
• Delta: -68.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16200 N Avenida Del Canada	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+1%)	15mo	$315,000	$214	61
15301 N Oracle Rd #40	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	4mo	$149,500	$93	54
15875 N Twin Lakes Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	11mo	$393,000	$251	52
15365 N Twin Lakes Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	6mo	$339,500	$217	48
16040 N Elkins Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	15mo	$260,000	$201	47
15301 N Oracle Rd #41	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	17mo	$145,000	$94	40
16159 N Forecastle Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	21mo	$260,000	$208	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $55,612
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $138,383
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85739

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,095

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15925 N Capstan Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,725	$1.73	24d	1	0.69mi
15456 N Twin Lakes Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,500	$1.85	44d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,500 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $87,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,500 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $90,500 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Home offers easy, affordable living, a home that feels warm and inviting in a great NW location. A total redo with new kitchen cabinets, stainless steel appliances, updated fixtures, whole home replumbed with Pex plumbing in 2022, heating and air in 2023, Pergo flooring in 2022, newer lighting, ceiling fans and leaving this home move in ready! Perfect outdoor entertaining on your cozy, 2025 sun room, 195 sq. ft. The spacious interior offers a comfortable layout split plan. The master bathroom has a great soaking tub and separate shower. This is for the home only-- land is leased at $630 per month, and is in a 55+ park. Great location near shopping and restaurants. Would also make a great Vacation Home! Completely fenced with wood privacy fencing. There is a lemon tree on front side of home. There is also a storage shed as well. A MUST SEE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $12,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,999
• After-tax cash flow: $10,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is move-in ready with recent updates and a good condition score, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both upgrading light fixtures — newer, more energy-efficient fixtures
• Both upgrading flooring — newer flooring can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both upgrading light fixtures — newer, more energy-efficient fixtures ↑
• Both upgrading flooring — newer flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Catalina

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #200
• US rank: #20345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catalina, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,749

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.24%
• Current HPI: 211.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $90,500 MLSSAZ