537 Patrick Farms Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$309,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come check out this NEW CONSTRUCTION home from a LOCAL BUILDER. This is a 4/3 split plan with an open feel. This home has a large family room with high ceilings that is open to the kitchen and eating area. The kitchen has a large island, pantry, custom built cabinets(no pre fab cabinets), and stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom has vaulted ceiling and has a door that leads into the master bath. The master bath has double vanities, seperate shower, and a large walk in closet with direct access to the laundry room. This home also has a nice covered porch to enjoy the back yard. The builder is offering concessions to be used for the buyers choice of an interest rate buy down, fenc

Key facts

• Large family room
• New construction
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• CUSTOM BUILT CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VAULTED CEILING

🏗️ New construction. The $309,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,788.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-976/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pearl Lower Elementary School (782 students, 100% FRL); Pearl Junior High School (math 46% / reading 40%, grade D-, #47 of 179 statewide, top 26%, 1,001 students, 100% FRL); Pearl High School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 1,262 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,537/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1235% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,698 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,788
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
537 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,818 (0%)	1mo	$309,900	$170	100
542 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-0%)	4mo	$299,999	$166	91
539 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,804 (-1%)	2mo	$308,000	$171	90
571 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-0%)	3mo	$299,999	$166	88
563 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-0%)	3mo	$299,999	$166	88
562 Patrick Farms Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,807 (-1%)	2mo	$307,200	$170	88
425 Patrick Farms	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-1%)	1mo	$279,900	$156	86
575 Patrick Farms Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+7%)	4mo	$319,999	$164	81
518 Westfield Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-2%)	1mo	$299,775	$168	67
530 Planters Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-6%)	4mo	$272,500	$159	55
217 Clubview Cir	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,983 (+9%)	2mo	$332,999	$168	45
438 Clubhouse Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+9%)	4mo	$284,900	$144	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,236
• Equity at exit: $44,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,180
• Equity at exit: $26,093

Cash invested: $84,501 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,527/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $290,014

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,447
• Closing costs: $9,054
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
548 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	13d	1	0.03mi
573 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1910	$2,700	$1.41	13d	1	0.04mi
563 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	13d	1	0.38mi
571 Patrick Farms Dr Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,387	$1.32	13d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $309,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,905
• − Property taxes: −$4,527
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$8,779
• Taxable loss: −$6,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-28 Listed $309,900 MLSU