615 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #303 · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Condo · 99 Days on market

Built 1968 $60/sqft · 34% below area Est $61k · 34% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a personal retreat! 3rd-level condo just minutes from the beach. This 672 sq ft unit features 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom. Enough space for everyone, with two queen beds and additional sleeping space from a pull-out couch. Comfortably accommodating up to 6 guests. A wood-burning fireplace creates the perfect spot to relax after a day at the shore, while the private balcony offers a partial ocean view and fresh coastal air. Take a short walk down the trails to the beach access, this condo is ideal for weekend getaways! The Condo grounds offer excellent amenities including a pool, hot tub, sauna, game room, laundry room, and Playground/Green space for enjoyment and relaxing. With one

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Private balcony
• Beach access

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• PARTIAL OCEAN VIEW
• BEACH ACCESS
• POOL
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate -7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 94% of rent.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: -7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -49.41%
• DSCR: -1.20
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,019
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -34.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.14×
• Total profit: $-35,138
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -4.85×
• Total profit: $-65,509
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,136
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-434	-5% $-447	+0% $-461	+5% $-475	+10% $-489
Rent	-10% $-556	-5% $-509	+0% $-461	+5% $-414	+10% $-366
Rate	-1.0pp $-441	-0.5pp $-451	base $-461	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
672 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Ocean Shores, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	44d	1	0.23mi
165 Barnacle St Unit 503 Ocean Shores, WA	1.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-03-12
    listed $40,000 Active
18. 2025-07-10
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed
19. 2025-06-18
    status Pending
20. 2025-05-28
    listed $35,000 Active
21. 2018-04-13
    soldstatus $54,900 Sold
22. 2018-04-01
    status Pending
23. 2018-03-23
    listed $54,900 Active
24. 2015-09-16
    soldstatus $44,500 Sold
25. 2015-08-07
    status Pending
26. 2015-03-05
    price $49,500
27. 2014-08-29
    listed $54,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − HOA: −$13,632
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-26.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-13 Sold (MLS) $54,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-23 Listed $54,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $44,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-05 Price Changed $49,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-29 Listed $54,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid