40412 Medleys Ln · Mechanicsville, MD 20659

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1970 1.35 ac lot $179/sqft · 33% below area Est $208k · 33% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The value is in the land. 1.36 Acres in a rural setting with onsite utilities (private well & septic, electric). The property boasts a level lot with mature trees. Live in the mobile home while you begin the process of building your dream home. Or continue to use the mobile home, currently under a month to month lease, as income potential. * Note: Government backed loans may not support purchase of the mobile home as a residence.

Key facts

• Income potential
• Level lot
• Mature trees

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• MATURE TREES
• INCOME POTENTIAL

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $140,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$208,349) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.9% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#341 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.58%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,349
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -23.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $43,011
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $122,050
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20659

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,379/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $1,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $160,000 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    The value is in the land. 1.36 Acres in a rural setting with onsite utilities (private well & septic, electric). The property boasts a level lot with mature trees. Live in the mobile home while you begin the process of building your dream home. Or continue to use the mobile home, currently under a month to month lease, as income potential. * Note: Government backed loans may not support purchase of the mobile home as a residence.

17. 2026-01-21
    listed $200,000 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    The value is in the land. 1.36 Acres in a rural setting with onsite utilities (private well & septic, electric). The property boasts a level lot with mature trees. Live in the mobile home while you begin the process of building your dream home. Or continue to use the mobile home, currently under a month to month lease, as income potential. * Note: Government backed loans may not support purchase of the mobile home as a residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,379
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $10,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $9,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #18449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,918

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.41%
• Current HPI: 260.6298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,379 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.