3032 138th St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$233,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Land · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 5,175 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Buy NOW and get up to $8,000 Use-It-Your-Way Cash! This charming home features a classic brick exterior and a welcoming covered front entryway. Inside, luxury vinyl plank flooring flows through the open-concept kitchen, living, and dining areas. The kitchen shines with granite or quartz countertops, a spacious peninsula with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, and an enclosed pantry. The secluded master suite offers a large walk-in closet, while the covered back patio provides a peaceful retreat. Premium plumbing and lighting fixtures complete this thoughtfully designed home.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen
• Spacious peninsula

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT ENTRYWAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PENINSULA

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper East El (math 45% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 759 students, 55% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,229 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,725
• Equity at exit: $34,741

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-20,490
• Equity at exit: $20,146

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,757

Max offer price $233,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3015 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.10mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.12mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	21d	1	0.12mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	43d	1	0.15mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	21d	1	0.15mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	13d	1	0.15mi
3016 140th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	21d	1	0.17mi
2745 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	21d	1	0.37mi
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	0.37mi
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	21d	1	0.38mi
2739 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	43d	1	0.39mi
13510 Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	895	$1,275	$1.42	13d	8	0.40mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	21d	1	0.44mi
2550 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$1,795	$1.04	13d	1	0.54mi
2626 136th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1238	$1,400	$1.13	43d	1	0.55mi
2627 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,600	$1.05	21d	1	0.55mi
2540 138th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1328	$1,425	$1.07	13d	1	0.56mi
2613 136th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	21d	1	0.58mi
2611 136th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	21d	1	0.58mi
2529 138th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.5	1249	$1,400	$1.12	21d	1	0.59mi
2607 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,500	$0.99	43d	1	0.61mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	43d	1	0.66mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	13d	1	0.66mi
2309 134th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,799	$1.24	13d	1	0.81mi
2415 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	13d	1	0.82mi
2308 133rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	43d	1	0.84mi
2410 144th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	43d	1	0.84mi
2410 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	43d	1	0.84mi
2404 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	43d	1	0.87mi
14408 Avenue X Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	13d	1	0.88mi
13802 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	13d	1	0.92mi
14413 Avenue X Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.93mi
3515 124th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2201	$3,400	$1.54	13d	1	1.04mi
14102 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	1.05mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	13d	1	1.21mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	13d	1	1.31mi
13808 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	43d	1	1.33mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	1.35mi
3618 119th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2167	$2,950	$1.36	21d	1	1.37mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   status Active
3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-27
   price $233,000
5. 2026-03-11
   listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,264 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,436/yr (+$286/mo · 415.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$2,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$514
• After-tax cash flow: $2,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $233,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $239,000 LARMLS