12100 Melville Dr #505 · Conroe, TX 77356

$93,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 618 sqft · Condo · 22 Days on market

Built 1979 $152/sqft · 38% below area Est $153k · 38% under $258/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and enjoy Lake living in this beautiful 1 bedroom/1 bath condo - Just steps away from your new fishing spot. This condo is located on the bottom level and has been updated with new paint, blinds, curtains, refrigerator, range, microwave, dishwasher, disposa,l etc. It is move-in ready. This community offers a community pool and park with playground equipment, along with quick access to Hwy 105 for entertainment and shopping. Just minutes away from Margaritaville. It is also located in the highly rated Montgomery ISD. Bring your fishing rod to enjoy your evenings with no need to drive anywhere - just steps away from your back door. Whether this is a 1st home or a vacation home - it will be the PERFECT place for Lake Conroe living.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Lake living
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKE LIVING
• FISHING SPOT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• QUICK ACCESS TO HWY 105
• HIGHLY RATED MONTGOMERY ISD
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($658/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,589 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,799
• List price: $93,999
• Delta: -38.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-15,135
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-21,763
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$117 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $93,999

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $258 · $3,096/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,999 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,999 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,999 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,999 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,999 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $93,999 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $93,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,999 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    price $93,999 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    Come and enjoy Lake living in this beautiful 1 bedroom/1 bath condo - Just steps away from your new fishing spot. This condo is located on the bottom level and has been updated with new paint, blinds, curtains, refrigerator, range, microwave, dishwasher, disposa,l etc. It is move-in ready. This community offers a community pool and park with playground equipment, along with quick access to Hwy 105 for entertainment and shopping. Just minutes away from Margaritaville. It is also located in the highly rated Montgomery ISD. Bring your fishing rod to enjoy your evenings with no need to drive anywhere - just steps away from your back door. Whether this is a 1st home or a vacation home - it will be the PERFECT place for Lake Conroe living.

16. 2026-02-18
    listed $99,999 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    Come and enjoy Lake living in this beautiful 1 bedroom/1 bath condo - Just steps away from your new fishing spot. This condo is located on the bottom level and has been updated with new paint, blinds, curtains, refrigerator, range, microwave, dishwasher, disposa,l etc. It is move-in ready. This community offers a community pool and park with playground equipment, along with quick access to Hwy 105 for entertainment and shopping. Just minutes away from Margaritaville. It is also located in the highly rated Montgomery ISD. Bring your fishing rod to enjoy your evenings with no need to drive anywhere - just steps away from your back door. Whether this is a 1st home or a vacation home - it will be the PERFECT place for Lake Conroe living.

17. 2013-03-13
    soldstatus Sold 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Gorgeous first floor condo on Lake Conroe. You will not believe the updates in this home - custom chef's kitchen with granite, stainless appliance package, undermount sink, custom cabinetry, and space saving washer/dryer combo unit. Tile floors for easy maintenance, crown molding, 4'' baseboards, updated bathroom and fixtures make this home shine! Perfect for full time residence or as a weekend getaway! Come enjoy all that Walden and Lake Conroe have to offer! Lake just a few steps away!

18. 2013-03-10
    status Pending, Continue to Show 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Gorgeous first floor condo on Lake Conroe. You will not believe the updates in this home - custom chef's kitchen with granite, stainless appliance package, undermount sink, custom cabinetry, and space saving washer/dryer combo unit. Tile floors for easy maintenance, crown molding, 4'' baseboards, updated bathroom and fixtures make this home shine! Perfect for full time residence or as a weekend getaway! Come enjoy all that Walden and Lake Conroe have to offer! Lake just a few steps away!

19. 2013-02-23
    status Option Pending 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Gorgeous first floor condo on Lake Conroe. You will not believe the updates in this home - custom chef's kitchen with granite, stainless appliance package, undermount sink, custom cabinetry, and space saving washer/dryer combo unit. Tile floors for easy maintenance, crown molding, 4'' baseboards, updated bathroom and fixtures make this home shine! Perfect for full time residence or as a weekend getaway! Come enjoy all that Walden and Lake Conroe have to offer! Lake just a few steps away!

20. 2012-10-05
    listed $52,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Gorgeous first floor condo on Lake Conroe. You will not believe the updates in this home - custom chef's kitchen with granite, stainless appliance package, undermount sink, custom cabinetry, and space saving washer/dryer combo unit. Tile floors for easy maintenance, crown molding, 4'' baseboards, updated bathroom and fixtures make this home shine! Perfect for full time residence or as a weekend getaway! Come enjoy all that Walden and Lake Conroe have to offer! Lake just a few steps away!

21. 2009-06-05
    soldstatus
22. 2009-05-27
    historical
23. 2009-03-17
    listed $41,900
24. 2006-06-30
    historical
25. 2006-03-02
    listed $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable loss: −$696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $93,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2013-03-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-02-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-10-05 Listed $52,000 HARMLS
• 2009-06-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-03-17 Listed $41,900 HARMLS
• 2006-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-03-02 Listed $43,900 HARMLS