252 Orchard Laurel Dr · Alvin, TX 77511

$349,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,488 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 2,526 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $341k · at est. $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

Key facts

• 2,526 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-751 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 589 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,891 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,404
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: 2.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-106,747
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-163,417
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77511

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 589
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,859

Max offer price $217,362

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $349,990 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

2. 2026-05-13
   price $349,990 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

3. 2026-05-02
   price $359,990 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

4. 2026-04-28
   price $359,990 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

5. 2026-04-16
   price $369,990 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (721 chars)

   Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

6. 2026-04-14
   price $369,990 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

7. 2026-04-08
   price $389,990 721-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

8. 2026-04-08
   price $389,990 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

9. 2026-04-02
   listed $394,990 Active 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

10. 2026-04-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    The Reeves – Space to Grow, Style to Love Step into The Reeves, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect balance of function, flexibility, and flair. Whether you're hosting a crowd or settling in for a cozy night, this spacious floorplan rises to every occasion. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas create an inviting space at the heart of the home—ideal for making memories and sharing meals. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a peaceful retreat with its own private bath and generous closet space. Upstairs, you'll find four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area, perfect for a game room, media lounge, or study space. With plenty of room for everyone—and then some—The Reeves is built for growing families, hosting guests, and living life fully.

11. 2026-03-25
    price $394,990 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

12. 2026-03-25
    price $394,990

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

13. 2026-03-10
    price $399,990 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

14. 2026-03-10
    price $399,990

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

15. 2026-01-20
    price $409,990 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

16. 2026-01-19
    price $409,990
17. 2026-01-15
    price $412,461 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

18. 2026-01-07
    listed $423,261 Active
19. 2025-12-05
    listed $423,261 Active 721-char remark

    Show marketing remark (721 chars)

    Discover the Reeves floorplan, a beautifully designed 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home that offers the perfect blend of space, style, and flexibility for modern living. This expansive floorplan is made for both entertaining and everyday comfort, with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area that serves as the welcoming heart of the home. The main-level primary suite provides a private retreat complete with its own bath and generous closet space, while upstairs four additional bedrooms and a versatile second living area offer endless possibilities for guests, work, or play. With room to grow and spaces to gather, the Reeves is designed to fit your life-come see it for yourself and imagine the possibilities today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,489/yr (+$457/mo · 599.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$3,217
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$15,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvin, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,892
• Household income: $74,939
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 21% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.72%
• Current HPI: 278.5745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $359,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $369,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $409,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $412,461 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Listed $423,261 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $423,261 Zillow